NAM RGEM Video Analysis

Snowfall Forecast NY NJ CT Confidence Very Low

Snowfall Forecast NY NJ CT Confidence Very Low

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Snowfall Forecast NY NJ Confidence Very Low which sums this whole thing up pretty much. Here is what we are dealing with regarding the first ocean storm and what is running through my head at the moment.

OCEAN STORM GOES OUT TO SEA

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There isn’t any doubt with regards to the track of the ocean low. It will only get so far north before it gets ejected to the northeast. THAT IS NOT THE ISSUE. The issue is that even with the offshore track the circulation of the coastal storm is very large and there will be bands of precipitation on the northern and western side that will run far west of normal given a low that tracks east of 70 West Longitude

COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN

Snowfall Forecast NY NJ CT


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This would be a whole lot simpler a forecast were it not for a very complex upper air pattern that is taking shape across the northeast. So much energy is running around and I am yet to fully grasp the influence of the diving upper system into the Great Lakes. It seems that it wants to tilt the storms circulation to where the bands of precipitation remain distorted northwestward.

COASTAL EVENT

Snowfall Forecast NY NJ CT

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If this becomes an event it will be primarily a coastal one. The bands of snow will precipitation will weaken as they move westward. The great chance for anything on the order of accumulations will be for coastal New Jersey, Long Island and Eastern Connecticut with less to the west.

LAST MINUTE WESTWARD TREND

We have seen 3 snowfalls here in the last 3 weeks and all three systems wound up trending westward at the last minute. This includes yesterday’s. Lovers of the global models need to accept the fact that the European GFS and Canadian were among the LAST to shift westward. You can scream all you want about the European however the fact remains that it blew the northern extent of the Blizzard of 2016 and it did not accurately display the precipitation extent of the last event. The GFS was the last to shift westward on each occasion. The NAM has been better with all three inside the 48 hour timeframe. It was exceptional in the Blizzard of 2016 but less so with the other 2. The RGEM did very well in all three.

Snowfall Forecast NY NJ CT Confidence Very Low

joessnow02062016 Snowfall Forecast NY NJ CT Confidence Very Low

Since I need to put out something this is what I’m going with. BUST POTENTIAL VERY HIGH!!!!  There is time here to go higher IF the other models start showing a similar idea. Here is a rundown of what the other models do with this.

EUROPEAN OUT TO SEA

GFS OUT TO SEAT

CANADIAN CLOSE TO THE COAST FOR SOME SNOW

NAM CLOSE TO THE COAST FOR SOME SNOW

RGEM CLOSE TO THE COAST SNOW JUST OFFSHORE

SREF MODELS AGGRESSIVE WITH 6 INCH PLUS SNOWS FOR LONG ISLAND LOWER WEST AND NORTH

This pretty much sums it up. The NAM is very aggressive on this run and this is now 5 runs in a row where the model is throwing precipitation pretty far westward from the coastal low. This by the way is not that different from the European about 3 or 4 days ago which showed this very same idea. It would not be the first time  a global model showed something days ago only to have it wind up happening. If this forecast winds up busting then so be it. I think I’m entitiled to a pass after the first three events.

 

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