Snowfall Forecast Moderate Confidence
Confidence level on my snowfall forecast grows to a moderate level this morning as we are pretty much now at the point of nowcasting all this. You can see the storm developing on the satellite loop this morning and it is very impressive looking indeed. It will intensify pretty rapidly today and tonight and become a major gale center as it moves up the coast and just far enough offshore to prevent anything major occurring. Overnight models however did do some jogging and even the European came back westward with the back edge of measurable precipitation to about New York City so you and to be careful here for Central and Eastern Connecticut and Central and Eastern Long Island.
Snow will begin probably after midnight and come in from the east rather than from the west since this is an ocean storm moving southwest to northeast. The snow might set up in bands that diminish in intensity as they move westward so there could be some variations where some place get a couple of inches and some places get less than that. Gradually as you head west the amount of snow will diminish. Snow might continue over eastern areas well into Monday afternoon or evening as other factors come into play.
West and Southwest of New York City there should be very little from this unless there is a major westward back up of the precipitation shield. The western edge should be west of the New Jersey shore so coastal New Jersey Counties could see a coating to an inch or two of snow.
Snowfall Forecast Moderate Confidence Satellite & Radar Loops
It would be a good idea to keep a close watch on all this radar wise this evening and tonight. I will come out with separate model posts as the day wears on. So here is my snowfall forecast map for the first weather system. I will be putting out a second one for system number 2 later today.
Snowfall Forecast Moderate Confidence
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