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Snow This Weekend Weather Models Conflict Huge

Snow This Weekend Weather Models Conflict Huge

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Snow This Weekend Weather Models Conflict Huge

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The map above is my forecast that I issued earlier and I emphasized in an earlier post that the uncertainty was large and the bust factor was huge in both directions. Take a look at the disparity late this afternoon between the RGEM model and the NAM model.

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This is shaping up as the biggest battle yet between the American models and the Canadian/European models. The difference for our area between the two is astounding. It literally says to cover in a forecast for a coating to a foot! What are models struggling with? Well it is the somewhat odd yet dynamic nature of the storm system itself.

NAM MODEL UPPER AIR FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING

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The upper air structure for this system is very dynamic. And yet models are reacting differently in the development of the coastal low and the surround precipitation.

NAM MODEL SURFACE 2AM SUNDAY MORNING

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What this forecast hinges on is how the surface low reacts to that upper low and where it is when it does a westward hook Sunday morning. The NAM takes the surface low to just southeast of Nantucket The RGEM hooks it southeast of Cape Cod and there in lies the difference. The further north and east hook of the non American models makes a huge difference in the outcome here.

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All the non American models shift all the energy and development to the northeast to Southeastern New England. Its pretty simple really. The outcome would be a big win for either side. In the meantime we cover for a dusting to a foot and go for something in between!

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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