Snow To Rain Sunday Night No Major Issues Expected
Coastal Flood Watch Long Island Sunday Night
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Snow To Rain Sunday Night No Major Issues Expected
Coastal Flood Watch Long Island Sunday Night
Various Winter Storm Watches and Warnings are posted and all of them lie to the east of the I-81 Corridor except when you get down to Virginia and points south where cold air dams east of the mountains and you get what is known as a cold wedge that creates snow and ice storms. This is not our issue here since the core of this bitter cold air mass will pass out to the east of us and that will eventually bring in warmer air and change any snow over to rain. In fact along the coast, after starting out Sunday morning with temperatures in the single digits to near 10, snow lovers could suffer the humiliation of never seeing a flake or an ice pellet.
Latest National Weather Service snow forecast maps continue to cut back snow forecast amounts slightly from Eastern Pennsylvania eastward and for areas northeast into New England. This makes complete sense given the loss of the cold high an the track of the low which will be well inland. Even a developing secondary won’t save the day for snow lovers. I’m anticipating winter weather advisories to go up north and west of I-95 for Sunday night but there is really no need to put them up this early in the game.
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WEATHER RADAR
Meanwhile we have a major storm off the coast of Nova Scotia bringing heavy snows to that part of Canada. Bitter cold air as been pulled southward is is draining down the East Coast clear down to Florida and that sets up a major snow and ice storm for the interior Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Here today it is bitter cold with sunshine and a gusty wind. Temperatures will be no higher than the teens to some lower 20s and wind chills will be running 10 to 15 degrees lower all day. Then we head down to the single digits to low teens tonight with below zero readings Northeast Pennsylvania to the Catskills, Hudson Valley and interior Southern New England.
Clouds will increase Sunday and snow will start to advance from south to north. As the winds increase slowly from the east, warmer air starts to move inland and temperatures will begin a slow steady climb so that by Sunday evening along the coast (or possibly sooner) it will be above freezing. Inland areas will hold on to the cold air for a few extra hours and this is where a quick accumulation of snow will occur.
The strong easterly flow wrecks the entire bottom of the atmosphere. Overnight models actually are warmer which makes complete sense given that low level flow from off a 40 degree plus ocean. Snow spreads from south to north Sunday reaching Southern Pennsylvania to Central New Jersey by evening and Southeastern New England by midnight or shortly there after. The it changes to rain all the way to the I-81 corridor with freezing rain possible inland for a couple of hours (some places more) until it changes to rain and then it ends. Temperatures will continue to rise through the 30s, coastal temperatures could reach the 40s before this is all said and done by daybreak Monday. Weather conditions will improve slowly afterwards and it turns windy and colder again for the first part of next week.
Total precipitation should be on the range of an inch to an inch and a half with some locally higher amounts possible near the coast. Speaking of the coast with the deepening low moving northward look for winds to increase to gale force from Delaware to Southeastern New England. Winds could gust past 50 mph at times. We have a full moon this weekend and with the very strong onshore flow, coastal flooding will be likely at high tide and we expect some areas to experience moderate coastal flooding at high tide Sunday into Monday morning. Coastal flood watches are up for Long Island, the counties surrounding NY Harbor as well as the shores of Westchester and Southern Connecticut. Coastal flood advisories are up for the New Jersey shore south to Delaware. Expect additional developments here over the next 48 hours.
Specific start and end times, change over to rain times, as well as Joe’s early call forecast map which was issued Thursday and has not changed, along with snow forecast maps from Maine to Georgia, are available on my subscription platform on Patreon.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS & F5 WEATHER FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
