Snow Threat Sunday Morphs Into Something Different
Snow Threat Sunday Morphs Into Something Different
We continue to watch with some amazement but no surprise how weather models continue to take the Sunday system and morph it into something completely different. The GFS model is not quite there yet but the Canadian model which is usually not very good, every once in awhile does seem to get a grasp of what is going on. It has not shown this southern system at all over the last few days and indeed it appears that this may now indeed be the case. The European model today has pulled way back on the idea of that southern system coming out Saturday night into Sunday and instead begins to hold back most of it in the Gulf of Mexico.
The European is not quite there yet but the Canadian offers an interesting possibility in that the main energy in the Gulf of Mexico holds back and waits for a stronger upper air trough in the northern jet stream to impact it early next week.
This is the Canadian model picture for next Tuesday morning. It phases the trough in the north with the energy in the south and comes up with a strong storm moving up the coast. The European still has minimal southern energy and no phase at all so it is all in the northern low.
The question going forward is whether the Canadian is right about what happens in the southern stream. There are many arguments against this idea including the fact that phasing and deep troughs have been virtually absent for the last 6 months so what is different now? Is it the blocking to the north that is enhancing this?
We may get some clues from the GFS model run in a few hours to see where this is going and if this even a viable solution. Right now the Canadian is simply food for thought going forward.
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