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Snow Sleet Forecast Monday Night Tuesday 02/11-12/2019
Developments overnight and this morning seem to be telling us that this weather system will be coming in faster. In fact The Nam model suggests that snow/sleet start Monday evening across Southern Pennsylvania and before midnight in NYC to Long Island & the Hudson Valley. This means precip arriving sooner into colder air which buys some time. The overall character on the models makes this look like a big warm front coming northward with a wave that develops on it.
TheNAM model shows a long duration sleet show from Southern Pennsylvania NE to the Northern half of New Jersey to The Hudson Valley, Long Island and Connecticut. This makes forecasting accumulations harder because we don’t know how much is snow and how much is sleet. It changes to rani near the end because much of this is probably overwith later Tuesday evening.
So here is my early call snow forecast map. Sleet/snow ration will be key. Can we thump snow for a few hours before we go to sleet? I think some areas can. Going to stick with this until Monday…then might fine tune it a bit but this seems to make sense to me at this point. If there is one direction this forecast will go it is probably lower given how this winter has trended. The presence of sleet in this equation means there is a good chance accumulations here could be too high.
Meanwhile there is a lead system here for Sunday night that weather models on the short range side have gotten a little beefier with the precipitation. South Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania could see some upside here and I will wait until Sunday morning to see if these numbers need to be juiced up slightly.
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