snow weather models

Snow Possible Saturday Bitter Cold Air Mass Follows

Snow Possible Saturday Bitter Cold Air Mass Follows

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Snow Possible Saturday Bitter Cold Air Mass Follows

One of the things about a bitter cold air mass is that while it is very dry, it also doesn’t take much for snow to develop from even the weakest of disturbances. This has our attention a bit regarding Saturday into Saturday night. Weather models have been battling over just exactly what the jet stream is going to look like Saturday and whether there will be just enough of a disturbance to create a nice fluffy snowfall. We think there will be.

GFS MODEL OVERNIGHT SATURDAY EVENING

snow weather models

The GFS model has been suffering lately of having a very difficult time handling the strong northern jet stream. If it looks like this there you probably wouldn’t see a flake out of this or at most a snow shower. The flow is too fast and there simply is no room for anything to even remotely maintain an identity as it moves across. The European, Canadian, and NAM model all have a much different look as a trough is able to develop and swing around. This would produce a period of snow that could whiten the ground at least and possibly leave a few places with a couple of inches.

EUROPEAN UPPER AIR JET STREAM SATURDAY EVENING

snow weather models

A number of other short term models are coming around to this idea as well so we think it isn’t a reach to forecast a period of snow or snow showers on Saturday into Saturday evening and cover for anything from a coating to a couple of inches. The highest amounts might be biased to the east rather than to the west with this system. If it snows Saturday temperatures at best will be in the lower 20s and probably the upper teens which means a big fluff factor. If models start grinding out a couple of tenths of liquid precipitation, it could mean for a little upside especially to the east on Long Island and Connecticut.

euro snow weather models

The European courtesy of WX.GRAPHICS and the Canadian model both manage to produce a quarter of an inch of liquid and the European model has done this for several runs in a row as has the Canadian. A bit concerning is the 1/2 inch of liquid precip is not that far away and it is covering Eastern Long Island. The European has also done a pretty good job with snow lately as it nailed Christmas Eve night into Christmas morning almost to the flake.

snow

The new NAM model just out is supporting the European model and other models on the Saturday chance for snow giving about .05 to .10 of liquid which i think justifies the idea of anywhere from a coating to an inch or two in some places. We’ll come back to this later today to see how the European model handles it as well as which way the trends are going.

snow

Regardless of snow temperatures are going below zero New Years morning with the next shot of bitter cold air. Temperature map courtesy of WX.GRAPHICS.

 

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