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Snow Possibilities Winter Pattern Developing

Snow Possibilities Winter Pattern Developing

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Snow Possibilities Winter Pattern Developing

When it became evident that we were seeing the upper pattern evolving into a wintry one, it has been my contention that with a pattern like this, it would be likely that an early snowfall for somebody in our area was going to happen. Today’s weather models leave me unchanged in this view. The colder air pattern begins to establish itself beginning on Wednesday after the cold front to our west passes through. The first possibility would come on Friday as a wave develops on the front to our south but I’m actually less concerned with that and more concerned with the second arm of energy that swings in on Saturday. Weather models show that the wave for Friday will be flat and weak. This could keep us in clouds but the bulk of the precipitation will likely be offshore. However a weak less developed first wave leaves room for a second low to develop on Saturday and both the European and the GFS model are going down this particular road.

GFS MODEL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY CLICK TO ANIMATE

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What is happening is that energy from the Great Lakes is swinging eastward from the Ohio Valley. The first wave goes out to the northeast but by staying weak, it leaves behind a lot of moisture just to our south and east which then becomes available as the upper trough swings east.

GFS MODEL SUNDAY DECEMBER 10

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EUROPEAN MODEL UPPER AIR SUNDAY DECEMBER 10

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Both models line up very close with their views for the weekend which brings forecast confidence up. However both models have also been very inconsistent over the last few weeks on a number of different weather issues we have seen so I want to be cautious here. Below is the snow forecast map thanks to WEATHER.US per the European model. Rather than take this literally, we should look at this map as showing us where accumulating snow is possible and not the specific amounts. How much snow is a very short term forecast issue and can’t be addressed at this stage of the game

EUROPEAN SNOW FORECAST MAP COURTESY OF WEATHER.US

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Beyond what happens this weekend the upper pattern developing is exceptionally cold for this time of year. By the middle of next week the flow of air will be coming straight south from Northern Canada.

GFS TEMPERATURE FORECAST THURSDAY MORNING DECEMBER 14

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If the forecast holds with the deep vortex in Eastern Canada, we are likely to see a few days later next week with daytime temperatures not out of the 20s!

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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