snow

Snow Mix Monday Night Milder Next Week

Snow Mix Monday Night Milder Next Week

trademark

Snow Mix Monday Night Milder Next Week

This remarkable stretch of cold weather which of course has now includes a blizzard and the coldest air mass of the stretch moving in this weekend, can’t last forever thankfully. We are going to see a pattern change next week as the Arctic connection breaks down in the jet stream. We will probably transition over to a milder pattern overall and they may include a nice little thaw at some point in the next two weeks. Getting there will not necessarily be a straight line up and there will  be a few complications along the way.

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The map above shows the jet stream this morning with the core of the Arctic air right overhead. The flow is straight from the cold  Arctic north. The ridges in the west and in the Atlantic are anchoring the cold air in the East for the weekend. However this is going to be breaking down in a hurry early next week.

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A weak front will approach on Monday with some light precipitation. We could see some light snow or a mix late Monday into Monday night. One factor will be cold surfaces which could mean some glazing that develops with light snow mixed with some sleet and freezing rain. This may wind up being more snow than anything else inland. We will have to watch and see how fast the lower layers of the atmosphere warm on Monday. Cold air is likely to be stubborn since the warmer push of air isn’t anything remarkable. Once that system goes by we will be a regime of seasonal to above average temperatures for awhile as the trough sets up in the Western US for a change.

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Late next week there might be some shallow cold air that could get involved with a weather system coming out from the west. High pressure to the north might be a bit more important if the system coming out of the west is weaker and flatter which has been the general trend for the last few months. Some models like the European have been too aggressive with development in the west. The GFS has a more reasonable look. We aren’t too worked up about this at the moment and we will see how models evolve with this over the weekend.

 

 

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