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Snow Light Event Saturday Night Sunday Morning
Weather models this afternoon offer no reason to chance the forecast particularly since we are talking about a coating to an inch at the absolute worst. North of Route 80 in New Jersey & north of 287 in the Hudson Valley & 95 in Connecticut it could be an absolute shut out. Where there could be a small surprise would be the South Jersey counties of Southern Ocean, Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, and Salem counties. Here an inch or two..maybe 3 in some posts is not out of the question. The same holds for Southern Pennsylvania south of Philadelphia to Lancaster/Harrisburg to the Pennsylvania Maryland line. Baltimore/Washington could see a several inch snowfall. Virginia looks like the big winner (relatively speaking) with 4 inches or more west and south of DC.
What happens when the snow hits the dry air is the big question for areas from Central New Jersey northward since we could see snow on the radar with not much of it reaching the ground. Snow will arrive in Southern Pennsylvania tomorrow evening between 7pm and 10pm and it could take hours before it gets to the northern flank near Route 78 in New Jersey and NYC..perhaps around 3am or so. After 7am it all starts to dry up from north to south.
The NAM 3 model I think has the best picture of this with the first frame beginning at 10pm Saturday and the last at 4pm Sunday. You can see the enhancement that occurs in South Jersey and over Delaware as the coastal revs up slightly. All of this moves way during the day Sunday from north to south. The sun could come out from NYC north by mid to late morning. Clearing in the south will occur late in the day. Then it is cold and dry for much of next week as we look ahead to next weekend. A more bullish pattern develops in the long range so more chances are ahead.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.