Snow Ice Threat Increasing For Northeast
Hard to believe but yes the pattern is changing and yes there is the threat for snow ice in the interior northeast next Monday night into Tuesday. A couple of things that have developed today with regards to the new model runs. As we said yesterday the key to all this would be the big high and whether it would hold or move out. Today’s GFS is attempting to hold the high just enough that even the coast from Central New Jersey Northeastward could see some snow or sleet at the start with a longer period of frozen or freezing precipitation. I think that some areas of interior New York State especially north and west of route 84 might see a prolonged period of snow & ice before any changeover takes place. It is particularly interesting that we are going from all time highs to a more wintry pattern over a short few days but it is going to happen. Honestly it would be a nice kick in the rear end if we can somehow put down a snowfall accumulation coming out of all time record highs and the warmest December ever by a mile.
The almost always overstated GFS snowfall map and I would at least in areas closer to the coast, take these amounts and cut them in half. We will monitor the other models today of course to see if the trends show up there as well. A high to the north that takes longer and longer to get out of the way opens the door a little bit more.
This is quite simply and area of overrunning with a weakening low that runs northeast from the Gulf States and redevelops. The simple fact is the less developed this system is the colder the overall atmosphere. No other changes in the overall forecast short term through the weekend. You can check on those outlooks at the links below or the menus above. As far as the long range goes from today’s run, I will attempt to post on this later however very quickly it conintues to be increasingly bullish for colder weather as the New Year arrives and beyond.
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