Snow forecast maps are up from the latest model runs and they continue to show cheap thrill status as cold air arrives this weekend. As stated earlier, elevated areas in upstate New York and Northern New England are favored. The cold air aloft is ample but not so much at the surface because we are still mid October and the cold air is coming from Canada where snow cover growth has been rather tepid at least so far.
Typically the Nam tends to be warmer biased and even in the cold mountainous areas it doesnt not produce much though it is producing more than it did in earlier runs. The GFS is typically overdone with these sorts of maps. The dark blue would be indicitive of trace amounts and probably nothing more than flurries rather than something that whitens the ground. I’m putting these maps up more for general interest and practice for me for when these forecasts eventually become more threatening and more serious in nature. October snowfalls are rather rare even in northern regions. Activity tends to increase more as we get into November if favorable patterns develop.
Given the instability of the air on Sunday and the chance that there could be a few showers developing in the cold air on Sunday I would not be at all surprised if some nearby elevated areas in Northwest New Jersey, Poconos, and Catskills wind up seeing a few flurries. This continues to lie pretty much in cheap thrill land.
Earlier today the National Weather Service put up its winter outlook and I have links to it and my opinion on it as well.
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