Snow Colder Look Late Week
Snow Colder Look Late Week
We discussed yesterday in detail regarding the huge model differences between the European and the GFS model and how the trough in the west and the block were critical to the forecast outcome for next weekend and beyond. It appears now that both models had different aspects of the pattern wrong and overnight weather models begin to line up in a slightly different way and that trend continues this afternoon. Let’s quickly review yesterday’s weather model dilemma.
The maps above were the Friday night Saturday weather models for next weekend and you can see how different they were. What the GFS got right is that there will be troughing in the west but not as deep as it had yesterday. Where the European got it right was that there will be a stronger block and a stronger low at 50N-50W which will keep it colder in the east. The result is that the two models blended those changes together overnight and today and we come up with models that have similar looks to them today.
All four maps above are for the same time frame. The GFS now lines up better with the European from yesterday. The GFS seems more correct in the west with the trough but not as intense and dominate as yesterday and the European got it better in the East with the blocking signature. The outcome of all of this is that both models have 2 weather systems coming. One Thursday night into Friday which passes overhead and a second one next Saturday night into Sunday morning which passes by to our south with cold air and a surface high to the north. The one for Thursday night into Friday passes very close to the NYC/NJ and may be too far north for areas south of Route 84.
The only way the first system goes by further south is if the block builds in faster. Regardless it does set the stage for the second wave that comes along later on Saturday.
The key question going forward is the upper air storm out at 50N 50W and the block and how strong it is. If the block holds then then the model forecasts today won’t be that far off. If the block is stronger than tracks will be colder and further south..if weaker then it will be warmer and further north. We will evaluate the European when it comes out later this afternoon.
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