Snow Chances Depend On Blocking
Snow Chances Depend On Blocking
I have been repeatedly trying to emphasize the ideas on blocking can be very overstated. You can have all the blocking in the world but if the blocking is not in the right place, or if the resulting ridges and troughs are not in the right place, it won’t produce the outcome that you might expect for might like (pay attention snow lovers).
Today’s index are rather astounding considering how off the wall extreme they are forecast to reach. The East Pacific Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation both reach strong levels. The EPO actually goes to an extreme negative late next week. The Pacific North America pattern index which produces a strong ridge in the west and a deep trough in the east when it is positive, is about as off the wall negative as they come. This would normally mean you can’t have a big snow storm in the east. Or can you? Big classic storms are not the only way we could see a big snowfall. The state of the indices suggests that rather than the so called classic set ups, we could see setups in a different way. The state of the indices suggests we could see overrunning events. Overrunning is warm air moving up and over cold air producing precipitation. All that is required is a stalled front to the south, cold air to the north, and a little wave to buckle the front and start the process. This could be what we will be dealing with going forward.
Weather models have been hinting at this idea for days and they seem to be coming into focus on this as we draw inside the day 7 time frame. There are actually 2 waves on this front that the GFS and the European both show. The difference in the two models is that the GFS makes more with the first wave and less with the second, while the European makes more with the second and less with the first. Where the difference lies is with the approaching upper trough from the west.
You can see the difference in how the two models handle the approaching trough with the European much deeper than the GFS. This is why the European emphasizes the second wave more than the first. This is also why the European brings big snows to the interior Mid Atlantic and all of the Northeast (including the coast). The GFS brings some precipitation with the first wave and none of consequence with the second. These are the puzzle pieces we have to deal with. Remember this is a puzzle where the pieces can change in size and scope while you are trying to piece it together.
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