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Snow Chance Friday Big Warm Up Weekend & Early Next Week
It is a brutal evening out there with temperatures already down into the single digits and wind chills below zero. The cold air pushed in with snow squalls ahead of the arctic air late this afternoon. It left a coating to some isolated 1 inch amounts in some places. All the snow fell in about 10 to 15 minutes before the squalls moved out to the east. Now we watch thermometers continuing to move south.
Now that the squalls have moved away to the northeast we see that skies have completely cleared out. 2 things that stand out are the upper air disturbance that produced the squalls as they move into New England and the lake effect action going on across Lake Ontario and Lake Erie tonight. Those areas are going to get up to 2 feet of snow on the eastern shores of Lake Ontario (Pulaski/Watertown NY) as well as in Southwestern NY SW of Buffalo.
This leads to the question of how low is low? The winds are from the west and that is usually not a favorable wind to take temperatures below zero in the big cities and along the coast. We probably will drift down to the low single digits by the early morning hours and they will likely come to a stop. Wind chills overnight and tomorrow morning will easily be in the -10 to -20 range in most places.
The daytime Thursday it won’t get out of the low to mid teens and then down we go again to the single digits Friday morning though with not much wind. Then as warm air comes into the upper atmosphere clouds will increase. Warm advection ( warm air moving from one point to another) will produce an area of snow Friday afternoon and evening. it appears that the bulk of this will pass just south of NYC.
This system is weak and really has little support aloft. I think there is enough here to mention the chance for a coating to an inch or two in the areas indicated. This would be for Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Then let the warm up commence with some sunshine for the weekend. Highs Friday will be in the teens to lower 20s. Saturday we should be in the 30s. Sunday we should reach the 40s. Monday we actually could see 50s. The next chance for showers will come Tuesday with the next cold front.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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