Snow Accumulation Forecasts Raised Higher

Snow Accumulation Forecasts Raised Higher


Based on overnight and latest model runs and what is seemingly going on at the surface, I’m nudging up snowfall estimates especially for Long Island and Connecticut. The mid run short term models as well as others all continue a westward trend and a more robust precipitation profile. The RGEM remains the most aggressive and has gotten even more aggressive since yesterday leading the way of the other models which seem to be playing catch up. I basically took the RGEM snowfall forecast and cut it in half because of the fact that temperatures are so out of whack right now and that will take time to correct. I will be watching what happens before the snow begins sometime after 2am and how fast the atmosphere cools. The harder the precip the faster it will cool.

Snow Accumulation Forecasts Raised Higher JOE’S FORECAST

joessnowforecast02062016 snow accumulation forecasts raised

The radars are loading up to the south of us right now but the rain should be kept away at least through this evening. After midnight the rain moves northward as the cold air drain south. Low pressure on the front moves northeast and deepens a little. Im thinking a change to snow around 2 to 4am and then sit back and see what happens. Just for comparison here is the RGEM model snowfall forecast map.

Snow Accumulation Forecasts Raised Higher RGEM FORECAST


The RGEM has effectively doubled the amount of snow in the past 24 hours and would suggest 6 inch plus snows for Central and Eastern Long Island and the eastern half of Connecticut. It would have a couple of inches back to NW New Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania. Im thinking my forecast works for now.

Snow Accumulation Forecasts Raised Higher RADAR LOOPS

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Once the snow ends tomorrow morning or at the latest noon in Eastern areas it’s leftover clouds and some afternoon sunshine with highs in the 30s to near 40 for Friday and over the weekend the weather looks dry and seasonal.

With regards to the next week here is the GFS overnight analysis with a little RGEM mixed in.









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