Siberian Snow Cover Final Lap
Siberian Snow Cover Final Lap
North America Snow Cover Growth At 12 Year High
We are coming to the end of October which is the evaluation marker for Siberian Snow Cover Growth. The rate of growth is theoretically tied to cold winters in the Eastern US. The faster the rate of growth south of 60 degrees north, the higher the probability of a colder than normal winter in the East. This indicator worked well up until last year when the Super El Nino trumped the strong rate of snow cover growth.
After a very fast start, there has been a bit of a stall however the growth still remains among the top 3 Octobers of the last 11 years and dead even with last year. 2014-2015 is at the top while 2013-2014 is just below. What is interesting on the map below is that during the winter 2013-2014, weather conditions across Eastern Europe and Western Russia were quite warm.
If you remember during the winter Olympics they had problems with warm temperatures and very little snow. The map below shows that there has been very little snow cover growth in Western areas. Last year the snow cover growth extended much further west.
Now lets look at another El Nino year which was 2011-12. Notice that the snowcover growth was also more on the western flank like October 2015. The main difference between these 2 El Nino years is that in 2015, there was more growth on the southern flank than in 2011.
Now lets look at October 2001 which was when we are going into a strong La Nina (which we don’t have now. Notice the snow cover growth was very weak on the southern flank south of 60 degrees north. The winter of 2001-2002 was a very snowless year through much of the east.
The map below is Siberian snow cover as of October 27th 2016 and it continues to aggressive on the southern flank and non existent on the Western Flank west of the Urals.
The next maps are October 2009 & 2010 which led to snowy winters in the East. Again in the winters the growth was lacking in western areas and more robust south. They match up much closer to snow growth that we are seeing this year.
SIBERIAN SNOW COVER GROWTH CAUTION!!!
I think after seeing all this it is tempting to come to a conclusion. But remember this is one indicator and there are other factors that will be in play. We are also looking at a small subset of data here as I have cherry picked some recent winters. One would need to go back 50 or 60 years to see if this match up is significant. Meanwhile snow cover growth across North America is at a record pace in this 12 year data set and ahead of the last 3 winters which are all in the top 3. I will have to dig around some more to see if this is meaningful to the winter ahead. Final numbers will be out next week and I will be putting out my winter forecast on Sunday November 6th with a live facebook weather cast at 8pm EST as well as on my YOUTUBE channel. Subscribe to my YOUTUBE channel for free to get the latest videos.
I just want to add this final quote from Dr Judah Cohen’s blog.
- The stratospheric PV is predicted to significantly weaken into early November. All weather models now predict an unprecedented and significant early split of the stratospheric PV. I expect the circulation anomalies associated with the PV split to descend into the mid and lower troposphere later in November. When this occurs expect the cold and snow that has been mostly confined to Siberia so far, to expand into the mid-latitudes resulting in an early start to winter weather for widespread portions of northern Eurasia, including Europe and East Asia, and possibly the eastern United States (US).
SNOW REMOVAL COMPANIES FOR YOUR WINTER NEEDS
LONG ISLAND ROCKLAND COUNTY Connecticut
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK VIDEOS
In case you missed them I’ve been previewing the upcoming winter in a series of posts and videos. Here are the first 2. More will be coming along. Links to the latest posts are below.
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