Severe Weather Risks Today & Thursday, Heatwave Begins Wednesday & Lasts Into Saturday

The day will be a very warm to borderline hot and humid one.  Sunshine should dominate into the afternoon and then late this afternoon into tonight we will see some thunderstorms develop. There is also the risk for localized flash flooding today from Northeast Virginia through most of New Jersey as the ground continues to be saturated and the flooding threshold is low.

As far as high temperatures go, look for temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s this afternoon and one or two hot spots could touch 90 degrees. Humidity levels are climbing with dew points rising through the 60s. This is only the beginning as dew points will be in the 70s Wednesday through Friday and that will make for even more discomfort.

SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES

WEATHER RADAR

Thunderstorms will play out this evening into the first part of tonight before winding down. Not everyone will see storms today but just keep your eye to the sky and beware of the severe weather risk. Most lows will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s by Wednesday morning. Wednesday starts the streak of 90 degree highs that carry us right into the weekend.

Wednesday will also be the one day where in this heatwave that we do not see any thunderstorms. Most highs will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s. Dew points will be in the mid 60s to near 70. Though the humidity is high we do not have the mechanism to set off thunderstorms. Most of the day should be no worse than partly sunny.

Thursday poses to be an interesting day as we have not only hotter temperatures and high humidity in the forecast, but we also have another upper trough and cold front and that means severe weather risk. The Storm Prediction Center has already indicated a large area of slight risk from Northeast Virginia northeastward to New England and everyone in between

This risk area covers the entire I-95 corridor from Washington DC to Boston. I would not be at all surprised to see this risk area be raised to enhanced risk for some sections by the time we get to Thursday. It will be a very hot and very humid day with sunshine taking highs to the low to middle 90s. Thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon and evening and Thursday it seems could see activity that is more widespread as a front nears from the northwest.

Friday we do it all over again as it will be the hottest day of the stretch. We will have a west wind Friday and a good deal of sunshine. Highs will have no problem reaching the mid to upper 90s. There won’t be much relief at the ocean since the sea breeze will essentially be cut off, unless you are actually standing in the water. Thunderstorms are likely to develop in the evening as yet another upper trough and cold front approach.

This front at the end of the week will linger around Saturday which will be the 4th and final day of the heatwave. Temperatures Saturday will not be as hot as Friday but highs should reach into the lower 90s in many places and there is the chance for some thunderstorms. However there is some good news with this cold front.

The upper pattern still shows a strong flow from Canda and that will keep sending cold fronts and air masses into the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic. There is a dry and actually somewhat cooler high that will build in for Sunday and Monday. The thunderstorm goes away, the heat goes away, and the humidity goes away. Sunday we will see sunshine and it will turn pleasant with highs in the low to mid 80s and that will last into Monday of next week with highs just in the upper 70s and lower 80s! If the upper pattern holds, we will see more of these dry air masses as we move into and through the month of August! But that is a big if.