Severe Weather Risks Today Dry Cool Weather Wednesday Into the Weekend
Weather in 5/Joe & Joe Weather Show Latest Podcast
Severe Weather Risks Today Dry Cool Weather Wednesday Into the Weekend
We have a cold front coming through later today and the Storm Prediction Center has expanded its risk zone to include virtually all of New Jersey, Long Island to the southern areas of the Lower Hudson Valley. Further south the risk is higher across Southern New Jersey and parts of Southeastern Pennsylvania south into Maryland, Delaware and Northeastern Virginia.
You can see by the forecast high temperature map that the risk is being driven by the amount of daytime heating. North of the marginal risk zone, highs will just be in the upper 60s to around 70 while in the slight risk zone, highs will reach into the lower 80s. Satellite show enhanced clouds in Southwestern Pennsylvania and other clouds that expanded into the Northeast ahead of the cold front. There are some showers on the radar running out ahead of the main area of storms which will come later today.
SATELLITE
WEATHER RADAR
Not a single short range model is showing us much of anything today and that conflicts directly with what is on the radar so we ignore the models and indicate that the risk for thunderstorms is there through this afternoon and one or two of them could be strong enough to produce gusty winds. Tornado risk is less than the 2% threshold. Once the front passes we clear out tonight and get set for very cool air to come into the Eastern US on a strengthening northerly flow from Canada.
Wednesday begins a stretch of cool autumn weather with no worse than partly sunny skies. There could be some instability clouds inland. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s. Thursday and Friday will be partly to mostly sunny and cool with highs in the low to middle 60s. Our dry weather continues into Saturday with sunshine taking highs to 65 to near 70 degrees.
Sunday hinges on Hurricane Sam but not in the way you might think. Sam passes well offshore to the east and then heads northeast. Models have been struggling on whether Sam heads toward Newfoundland where it gets absorbed by a strengthening non tropical system in Southeastern Labrador. If that happens it will strengthen the northerly flow in the Northeast and a system coming out of th Southern Plains gets suppressed to our south. If Sam passes south and east of Newfoundland as indicated by most models today, then we will have room for the moisture from the south to move northward and bring rain on Sunday. We are now beginning to lean to a wetter solution Sunday making Saturday the better of the two weekend days.
BE SURE TO DOWNLOAD THE FREE METEOROLOGIST JOE CIOFFI WEATHER APP &
ANGRY BEN’S FREE WEATHER APP “THE ANGRY WEATHERMAN!
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS & F5 WEATHER FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
