Severe Weather Risks Late This Afternoon And Wednesday
Tropical Storm Elsa Looms For Florida & Southeast
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Severe Weather Risks Late This Afternoon And Wednesday
Tropical Storm Elsa Looms For Florida & Southeast
While Tropical Storm Elsa is spreading tropical storm force winds and heavy rains across the Florida Keys and Southwest Florida, we have our own issues to deal with today. First off it is going to be a very hot very humid day with highs this afternoon reaching the low to mid 90s with wretched humidity.
Late this afternoon and evening an upper trough is going to be moving southeast across Upstate NY and this is going to set us up for a line of strong to severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms and a 5% chance for hail.
In the meantime we set the table today with little cloud cover around on the satellite which will allow for plenty of daytime heating. Radars are quiet for now but look for them to rev up later this afternoon and after we reach our highs in the low to mid 90s.
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WEATHER RADAR
The atmosphere today will be very unstable and the upper trough will likely set off a line of storms reaching peak intensity across Northern New Jersey NYC and Long Island. When these troughs come down from the northwest it usually means strong thunderstorms even for the coast and weather models reflect that possibility. Also ocean water temperatures have warmed into the 70s now and that reduces the stabilizing influence of the ocean.
The short range FV3 model has worked well this spring and summer and it has a robust line developing in the late afternoon and evening and the other short range models have similar ideas. Once the trough moves offshore tonight the storms should weaken and diminish. Guess what? We get to do it again on Wednesday.
Highs Wednesday again will reach the low and middle 90s. Humidity levels again will be wretchedly high. The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable as a cold front and another upper trough come in from the northwest. This time around the Storm Prediction Center has the risk zone a little further north but I think this will be expanded later today.
Now lets move on to Thursday and Friday. We will have a stalled cold front to the west of us creating an alley way from the Southeast US to Southern New England. In that alley way Tropical Storm Elsa in some form or another will likely move north northeastward up the coast. It will likely emerge offshore somewhere off the Delmarva Peninsula and pass south and east of Long Island and Southeastern New England Friday morning.
The above is the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center. Let me immediately go back to last year with Tropical Storm Isaias which if you remember brought us about 6 hours of very strong winds that gusted to hurricane force and caused widespread damage. This forecast track if it verifies would produce an entirely different result. Except for fringe gales along the immediate coast wind won’t be much of an issue. Rain would be a bigger issue on the western side of the low.
This would be for Thursday night into Friday morning for about a 6 to 8 hour period. Note there isn’t much rain inland so this looks to be primarily a coastal issue. For now we are not overly concerned with this and won’t be until we see what exactly comes about from Elsa’s trip up Western Florida. We will have additional information and coverage of this on my weather platform on Patreon.
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
