Severe Weather Risk Upgraded Tuesday Long Range Active & Wet
The Storm Prediction Center indeed upgraded the risk assessment for out area to a “Slight Risk” and it covers the region from Northeast Maryland to the Lower Hudson Valley to Southern New England and marginal risk on either side. This includes NYC, Long Island and Philadelphia in the slight risk zone. The main risk is from strong winds of over 60 mph.
Slight Risk indicates an area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity. Some of the thunderstorms will be severe. The map above shows the probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Meanwhile tonight we have gotten rid of most of the clouds and the rain on the radar that was to the south and east is long gone. Skies should be clear for most of the night before clouds start to move back in later Tuesday morning. Lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s in most places.
The risk time for thunderstorms will be from 1pm to 6pm from west to east, starting in Eastern Pennsylvania around 1pm or so and reaching Eastern Long Island and Eastern Connecticut around 5 or 6pm. These storms will be rocketing along at a very fast rate. Joe Rao and I will likely be broadcasting live tomorrow afternoon as the thunderstorms develop on my youtube channel.
While weather conditions improve on Wednesday with sunshine it will be cold with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Then our weather goes downhill for the rest of the week and probably the weekend. The upper air pattern is active with a southern part of the jet stream that continues to shoot weather systems along from west to east while the northern part of the jet stream moves along in a more relaxed fashion, allowing these short waves to lift up northward enough to create issues here. The first round of issues will be on Thursday. Low pressure comes out of the Southern Plains and heads east. High pressure builds south in Eastern Canada into the northeast. That spells onshore flow and rain late Thursday and lasting on and off through Friday. We may see temperatures much of the time in the 40s to lower 50s with the persistent onshore flow and rain.
Weather conditions should improve on Saturday but clouds come back in a hurry and rain could be here for Saturday and Sunday as another low heads east from the Ohio Valley and takes its time moving through the area. Still a third system could follow for the middle of next week. It is a wet miserable pattern that lies ahead of us.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.