Severe Weather Risk Sunday And Monday Independence Day Warm With No Rain
Smokey Conditions Ease
The 4th of July falls on a Tuesday this year which means that effectively many of you have engineered a long 4 day weekend. Congratualtions on pulling that off. The weekend gets underway with smokey conditions again cross much of the Eastern US but the good news is that will be easing over the next 2 days as upper air winds turn to the southwest and the source region from Canada is cut off.
There are some clouds moving in from the west as blow off from overnight thunderstorms gets deflexted eastward but overall today for much of Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England it probably should be no worse than partly sunny with highs in the low to mid 80s inland. Long Island and New Jersey shore goers will see temperatures mostly in the 70s.
There is a slow moving weather front moving east fromt the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and this will likely set off thunderstorms well inland late this afternoon and tonight, mainly west of New Jersey and perhaps from the Catskills north and west in NY state but much of the areas closer to the coast will be fine with no rain indicated.
If I had to pick one day of the next 4 where we have the biggest rain risk that would be Sunday. First off we have a warm front that will be moving east and that could produce an area of showers and thunderstorms overnight moving from west to east. That goes by in the morning and it turns very humid. Some sunshine should break through the clouds with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Temperatures rising into the 80s with dew points rising into the mid and upper 60s set up for a juicy atmosphere across the Northern Mid Atlantic to Southern New England. Throw in an approaching cold front and a solid upper air short wave trough and you have the mix for creating severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has indicated an east west band of “slight” risk (15% chance) for severe weather later Sunday afternoon and evening.
I think there is a fair chance that this area gets expanded to the north by the Storm Prediction Center. The risk will be wind and hail from these thunderstorms and perhaps an isolated tornado or two. There is an outside chance we could see an area of enhanced risk (30%) being added in for a small area across Maryland and Virginia depending on how much daytime heating gets going for Sunday.
Showers and thunderstorms Sunday night will wind down as the cold front nears the coast. The front will lie right along the coast Monday with an upper trough moving through from the northwest. Monday will be a better day than Sunday with no worse than partly sunny skies. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.
There is severe weather risk Monday afternoon and evening for isolated severe thunderstorms and for now the Storm Prediction Center indicates a marginal risk for severe weather from Southern New England south to mostly the coastal counties of New Jersey south to Delmarva. Once the front pushes east it will leave us with a nice 4th of July of sunshine, warm conditions, and I’m leaving showers and thunderstorms out of the forecast. Highs Tuesday will be in the low to mid 80s.
For those of you extending the holiday for a week off in the shore or the mountains or perhaps just staying at home, Wednesday looks to be dry and warm. Thursday into Friday another cold front will arrive and with that another chance for showers and thunderstorms to finish off next week.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
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