severe weather threat

Severe Weather Risk Saturday

Severe Weather Risk Saturday

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Severe Weather Risk Saturday

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The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service has indicated a marginal risk of severe weather for Saturday for all of the Northeast US from Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey northeastward. This is due for a cold front that will be approaching and moving through during Saturday. You can see the front moving into the Western Great Lakes on the satellite loop. Until it gets here we have another good day of weather ahead of us on Friday with sunshine and highs in the low to middle 80s. Humidity levels will still be comfortable.

storm free

storm free

storm free
storm free

storm free

 Severe Weather Risk Saturday

The problem for Saturday is the timing of the front as weather models are showing different speeds here. Usually the NAM model is faster. The GFS has been trying to bring the front through in the early afternoon and this afternoons NAM 4KM model goes along now with this idea. The NAM 12 model however has it holding back until evening. 

Severe Weather Risk Weather Models Saturday Afternoon

severe weather risk nam60 severe weather riskgfs54 severe weather risk

Since we have been seeing weather fronts mainly underperform over the summer (not all the time), I think right now the best approach from a forecast standpoint is the lean on the idea that the front may be a bit slower than forecast and come through mid to late afternoon. Should it come through earlier, it would probably mean storms would be a little less developed with the lack of daytime heating. Delay of thunderstorms means temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday. Behind the front dry and and lots of sunshine come in for Sunday.

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