Severe Weather Risk Next 2 Days Hot Humid Thursday
The onshore flow that has been dominating the weather in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states is finally breaking down and attention turns to an approaching warm front to the west. Showers and thunderstorms are possible later today into this evening and the Storm Prediction Center is indicating a marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms from Central and South Jersey, much of Eastern Pennsylvania south into Delaware, Maryland and Northeastern Virginia.
Ahead of any thunderstorm activity today we will see clouds give way to some sunshine and winds which have been from the east for days have turned more south and southwest and that will allow temperatures to warm to the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon. The highest risk for thunderstorms will be from mid afternoon into this evening and then they should diminish overnight.
SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
WEATHER RADAR
Tonight it will be very warm and humid with just some leftover clouds. Thursday morning lows will generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Thursday is going to be a hot day ahead of a cold front. West to southwest winds coupled with sunshine will take highs to the upper 80s and lower 90s over much Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England. Even shore areas could see temperatures well into the 80s before any sea breezes develop, if they develop at all.
A weather front will be approaching and given that the air mass ahead of the front will be very warm and unstable we have the risk for thunderstorms developing later Thursday into Thursday evening. We also have a strong short wave trough in the upper atmosphere that will be swinging across Southeast Canada and that will be a catalyst for severe thunderstorms to develop.
The Storm Prediction Center is indicating a slight risk or 15 percent chance for severe thunderstorms from New England south to Maryland & Virginia and that includes all of Eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York City, the Hudson Valley and Western Long Island. The immediate coast into Southeastern New England has a marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms. There is also the risk for an isolated tornado or two spinning up.
Once the front passes slightly drier and slightly cooler air will come in for Friday with returning sunshine and reasonable humidity. Highs Friday will be in the low to mid 80s. The weekend looks to be mostly dry and temperatures will be headed up. A heat wave is likely to begin by Sunday as temperatures rise above 90 degrees for highs. Very hot and somewhat humid conditions will be with us for Monday through Thursday of next week with highs in the 80s each day. In fact Monday into Wednesday we could see highs in the mid to upper 90s with some 100 degree hot spots possible. Little to no rain is forecast over the weekend and through much of next week as a strong heat ridge sets up over the Northern Mid Atlantic states and it will hold for much of next week.
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.