Severe Weather Risk Friday Memorial Day Holiday Weekend Outlook
Severe Weather Risk Friday Memorial Day Holiday Weekend Outlook
We are going to start slowly priming up the atmosphere for thunderstorms and severe weather Friday. Thant means more clouds today and a wind off the ocean bends around to the southeast. There will still be some sun in the mix however. Temperatures are going to have a bit of struggle with most highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. It is a rather straightforward outlook for this Thursday and tonight we will see clouds around along with some patchy drizzle. Temperatures overnight are not likely to fall much. Lows will be in the upper 50s in the coolest spots and low to middle 60s everywhere else.
SATELLITE
WEATHER RADAR
Friday could turn out to be a busy weather day. We have a cold front that will be approaching from the Ohio Valley. Low pressure is headed northeast and that should push the front through some time tonight. Ahead of it today with a south to southwest wind we expect some sun breaking through the clouds to provide some day time heating. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
We will have to watch for renegade thunderstorm development around midday or early afternoon before the main area of storms arrives in the late afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe weather in the western half of New Jersey and much of Eastern Pennsylvania southward into Maryland Delaware and Eastern Virginia. Marginal risk extends north throughout the Hudson Valley and points north and west in NY, grazing western New England.
This time around the strongest part of the upper trough is more to the south than to the north. As a result there is elevated tornado risk with up to 5% being indicated for Southeastern Pennsylvania, Southern New Jersey and points southward into Eastern Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware.
The risks seem reasonable given the strength of the cold front and trough. The nam loop below starts at 1pm Friday and shows every three hours per frame. It runs right through Sunday afternoon. It highlights the minor issue that remains for Saturday. Once the front passes the showers are off shore and long gone by Saturday morning. The issue for Saturday is a lagging upper trough that will need to move through to finally get it all out of the way for Sunday and Monday.
This is not to say that Saturday will be a washout because it won’t be. We will have clouds and sun into the afternoon and then as the upper trough goes by we look for scattered showers or perhaps a thunderstorm. i don’t thing everyone sees showers. The Nam doesn’t really look all that impressive with this nor do the other models but there is enough there that we need to include the chance. Highs Saturday will be in the 70s.
There are no issues for Sunday and Monday. They should be two very nice days with reasonable temperatures. Both days will sunshine. Highs will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s Sunday and into the 80s Monday. Skies should be sunny and humidity levels will actually be reasonable. Temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler along coastal areas and beaches. Longer range most of next week will be dry. We will start to see 90 degree highs in places Tuesday and Wednesday. The next front looks like will come through late next Thursday.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS & F5 WEATHER FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
