Severe Weather Risk & Flash Flood Watches Inland Thunderstorms Around Today
The saturated nature of the atmosphere in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states has us living in a sponge and that sponge is about to get wrung to some extent in the form of heavy rain. Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and these are the types of storms that are slow moving and can produce significant amounts of rain (several inches or more) in a short period of time. Flood Watches are posted over much of Upstate NY mainly east of Interstate 81 and south of Interstate 90. Watches continue downstate to include the Hudson Valley and New York City as well as Western Connecticut. Watches continue across much of New Jersey, the eastern half of Pennsylvania, most of Maryland Virginia and points south.
How this is going to work is that thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon and they will be locally heavy and slow moving. Rainfall forecasts are rather useless other than to say that some heavier thunderstorms can produce several inches of rain in a very short period of time. Not everyone sees flash flooding but the risk is area wide so it will be a matter of watching where storms form and what areas they pass over.
We also have severe weather risk in the mix. The Storm Prediction Center is indicating a marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms from Upstate New York and Western New England south to much of Pennsylvania. Western New Jersey, , Maryland and Virginia. This matches up well with the flood risk zones but I think the bigger issue today is going to be the potential for heavy rain.
SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
WEATHER RADAR
The way this plays out today is that thunderstorms will gradually develop across Pennsylvania and Upstate New York along and west of Interstate 81 and then crawl eastward. The heaviest rains will fall between noon and 8pm tonight. Some clusters of thunderstorms will sit over certain areas dumping rain at rates of 1 to 2 inches and hour or higher (that’s a lot of water). It will be very humid today with highs mostly in the upper 70s to middle 80s on average.
After this evening storms should weaken and fall apart overnight though a few scattered downpours could linger around into the early morning hours. Tuesday sees the risk for scattered thunderstorms but overall a better day with less rain. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with some sunshine. Storm risks will be back later Wednesday through Friday as temperatures head higher by the end of the week.
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Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.