Severe Weather Risk Father’s Day Chance Showers Thunderstorms Late Today
Warmer and more humid air has moved in today after a good looking Saturady & just in time for Father’s Day. Clouds are evident on the satellite running from east to west across much of New England southward into Central New Jersey westward into Pennsylvania. South Jersey and Southern Pennsylvania have broken out into sunshine and temperatures here will reach up into the middle 80s. The Storm Prediction Center is indicating a risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
On the radar this morning we see showers and some heavier downpours moving across Upstate NY and along the Pennsylvania/New York State border. Also some scattered light showers across Southeastern New England. These showers are moving to the northeast and will not be an issue for most of you. We will be waiting for showers and thunderstorms to develop in the risk areas late today into tonight. In between look for clouds and some breaks of sunshine north of Route 195 in New Jersey and Route 78 in Pennsylvania. South of there look for a good deal of sunshine and lots of daytime heating which will feed into the severe weather risk issue.
You can see how the showers are showing up on the local radars. Most of what is there is in patches and not lasting very long as it moves from west to east across Upstate NY & Southern New England. Not much is showing up on the Fort Dix Radar for areas south of NYC.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Today is also going to begin an active week of weather ahead with a frontal boundary lying close by all week long and that means multiple threats of showers and thunderstorms. Some threats will be stronger than others and that will depend on where the boundary is and the timing. Once this evening’s threat plays through the boundary will be lying close to NYC/PHL/DCA which means a warm and humid night and a warm and humid Monday. Another round of thunderstorms is likely Monday evening. Highs will be reaching into the 80s.
The GFS model shows these mutiple threats playing out through Friday night. Starting with Monday evening it would seem Tuesday could be a dry day before another rough plays out Tuesday night into Wednesday and another later Thursday and again on Friday. Wednesday’s system shows a low passing to the south which could put us in a cooler onshore flow and temperatures in the 60s or just barely nito the 70s. This is all thanks to a busy jet stream pattern that will be further south than average in the East all week long. As long as this is the case we won’t be seeing any prolonged hot weather anytime soon and 90 degree temperatures even on a a single day will be tough to achieve.
With multiple attempts for showers and thunderstorms all week this could be a big week for rainfall. Several inches of rainfall is forecast for the work week through Friday evening. Of course this will be spread out over 5 days but depending on the thunderstorms, flooding does become an issue with this weather pattern at some point.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.