Severe Weather Risk Expanded Subtropical Storm Forecast To Form East of Florida
There have been a few development regarding the weather going forward. Friday we have a severe weather risk as we warm up into the upper 70s to middle 80s on a west southwest wind. An upper trough swinging east and a cold front will trigger off thunderstorms. We will be solidly in the warm sector on Friday and the Storm Prediction Center has increased the risk of severe weather adding an enhanced risk area from Northeast Pennsylvania into Central New England with a large area of slight risk from Ohio eastward to NYC and Southern New England.
The other development is in regard to disturbed weather that continues to increase this afternoon over the Florida Straits and South Florida east to the Bahamas. Low pressure will begin to develop later tonight and on Friday and it seems likely that we will see a subtropical depression or subtropical storm develop here over the next 2 days. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 70 percent chance in the next 48 hour and an 80 percent chance over the next 5 days.
Most of the weather models carry the low northeastward over the next 5 days. Except for some heavy rain in Southeast Florida this storm remains offshore per the GFS ensemble view above. It will however be part of a very complex set up along the East Coast which will play itself out over the weekend and next week. More on the long range later.
Most of today was a beauty with sunshine though some clouds did come in from time to time and from place to place. A warm front is setting up over us tonight and some showers are starting to show up on the regional radar over Central Pennsylvania and Upstate NY. Most of the showers will be north of the warm front tonight into early Friday morning and that brings showers across Upstate NY and into Southeastern New England. Elsewhere just come clouds around with temperatures holding up and lows will be in the mid to upper 50s.
Friday will be the warmest day of the spring so far with some sunshine. Highs will reach the upper 70s near the coast to the mid 80s inland except where sea breezes come in along the immediate shore. Then we turn our attention to the northwest with a cold front late Friday with showers and thunderstorms and the risk that some of those thunderstorms will be strong or even severe.
The timing of these thunderstorms seem to be more for late evening than late afternoon. We will have to keep an eye on whether some renegade scattered cells develop in the late afternoon. The main line comes through after sunset assuming the line holds together.
The idea for the weekend remains unchanged. Saturday will be the better of the two weekend days. The cold front stall across the Delmarva Peninsula to Virginia. High pressure to the north brings drier air southward initially before the onshore flow takes over. Lets call it some sunshine through arriving clouds especially in the afternoon. Highs will be in the 60s along the coast and upper 60s to low 70s inland. Sunday the warm front moves northward with the chance for some scattered showers and an increasing chance for showers Sunday night. Highs Sunday will be in the 60s. Monday looks cloudy and rainy. The onshore flow Monday will keep temperatures just in the low to mid 50s. Lingering rain or drizzle lasts into Tuesday.
The subtropical system is well offshore but we will have a long fetch of easterly winds developing Monday and they will increase Tuesday into Wednesday. This creates tidal concerns with the possibility of coastal flooding Tuesday and Wednesday. Improving weather conditions will hinge on whether that high to the north suppresses everything further south later next week.
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