Severe Thunderstorm Watch Cold Front Nears
Dorian To Pass South Friday
We are seeing a warm humid afternoon. Temperatures have risen into the 80s. We have seen enough sunshine to lend to some daytime heating and with rising humidity levels we see the chance for some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. They are already showing up in the strips of brighter clouds showing up across upstate NY. Two lines of thunderstorms are on the move there. The Storm Prediction Center has put up a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for much of the area from Central New Jersey northeastward into New England.
This may be a situation where the strongest thunderstorms will be as you go north into New England. We should see some scattered thunderstorms for in areas to the South across Pennsylvania into Southern New Jersey going into this evening but the more active lines should be in the area where the watch box is posted. To the south on the satellite you can see the leading edge of some high clouds which are the forerunners of Hurricane Dorian. Dorian continues to move parallel to the Florida coast on a north northwest track staying offshore by about 50 miles or so.
We can see the lines of storms on the regional and local radars moving eastward from the Catskills and heading through the Hudson Valley. They will be in Connecticut and Massachusetts in the next hour or two. Some of the cells in those lines have reached severe levels from Albany eastward.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
The threat for thunderstorms will last through the evening and then skies will partially clear overnight with most lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Thursday may start with some sun but those Dorian induced high clouds will increase later in the day. Highs will be just into the 70s with a northeast breeze. Dorian will pass to the south and east of New Jersey and Long Island late Friday afternoon or evening.
We haven’t see much change in weather models this afternoon on the final track once it exits the Carolinas. Dorian will pass south and east by over 150 miles. This could bring some fringe rain to coastal New Jersey and Long Island for a few hours. We could see some gusty winds with fringe gales just offshore. However it is moving so fast that we don’t see any serious issues here. There might be some minor coastal flooding at times of high tide but it should be only one high tide cycle that would be an issue.
Dorian will to Nova Scotia and New Foundland. We will be left with 2 weak cold fronts with dry air giving way to drier air over the weekend as each front passes. One is for Saturday and the other for Sunday. Both days should feature a mix of sun and clouds with most highs in the 70s. High pressure will build to the north for Monday with sunshine for Monday and probably Tuesday of next week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.