Severe Thunderstorm Tornado

Severe Thunderstorm Tornado Risk

Severe Thunderstorm Tornado Risk

Severe Thunderstorm Tornado Risk

The Storm Prediction Center has assessed a large area of slight risk of severe weather for today. The atmosphere is quickly destabilizing with sunshine providing ample daytime heating sending temperatures up into the 90s. Dew points are in the 70s. The upper air is showing pretty impressive lapse rate (temperature falling with height) so it seems like the table is set for severe weather for somebody but the question is whom.

storm free

Also the Storm Prediction Center is assessing a 5 percent risk of a tornado developing in an area that includes much of Northern New Jersey, Northeastern Pennsylvania and much of Southern New York State and the Western half of Connecticut.

Severe Thunderstorm Tornado Risk

tornado

storm free

You can see on the satellite loop above and the radar loop below that the warm front has moved by for the most part. Rains are well north. The cloud shield has that arcing look to it and tells us we are in the warm sector (between warm and cold front) where severe weather can develop. 

storm free

storm free
storm free

With regards to where severe weather develops and what form it takes on the radar, i am shying away from the idea of a line of storms and leaning more toward scattered clusters. Of course these could be famous last words here. The bottom line is that the Storm Prediction Center has us at risk which I agree with. The unknown is when and were severe weather develops. The best we can say from here is watch the radar. Threat time will be mid afternoon through mid evening.

NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-161600-
NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   PTSUNNY   84  71  65 SW6       30.20F
LaGuardia APRT PTSUNNY   88  70  55 SW9       30.17S HX  93
Kennedy INTL   PTSUNNY   85  75  72 S8        30.20S HX  93
Newark/Liberty PTSUNNY   89  68  49 W12       30.17F HX  93
Bronx Bot Gard   N/A     88  70  55 W1        30.18F HX  92
Wall St Helipt PTSUNNY   86  73  66 SW5       30.19S HX  93
Teterboro      MOSUNNY   86  70  58 S6        30.16F HX  90
$$

NYZ177-179-078>081-161600-
LONG ISLAND NEW YORK

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Farmingdale    MOSUNNY   87  72  60 SW13      30.19F HX  93
MacArthur/ISP  PTSUNNY   86  74  67 S12       30.18F HX  94
Shirley        MOSUNNY   84  74  71 S12       30.20F HX  91
Riverhead      NOT AVBL
Westhampton    MOSUNNY   84  72  67 S9        30.22S
Southampton      N/A     81  77  89 S12       30.16F
Bridgehampton    N/A     81  75  83 S5        30.06S
East Hampton   CLOUDY    77  76  95 S7        30.20F
Montauk          N/A     81  75  82 VRB7      30.22S
$$

NYZ052-065-067-161600-
HUDSON VALLEY

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
White Plains   PTSUNNY   83  73  72 S7        30.18F
Newburgh       PTSUNNY   79  73  83 CALM      30.20S
Montgomery     CLOUDY    79  72  79 CALM      30.18S
Poughkeepsie   CLOUDY    81  70  69 W6        30.16F
Albany         CLOUDY    76  66  71 S6        30.16F
$$

NJZ001-105-106-008-010-013-015-019>022-104-161600-
NEW JERSEY

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Newark/Liberty PTSUNNY   89  68  49 W12       30.17F HX  93
Teterboro      MOSUNNY   86  70  58 S6        30.16F HX  90
Caldwell       PTSUNNY   84  70  62 S7        30.18F
Morristown     PTSUNNY   84  72  65 SW8       30.18F
Somerville     MOSUNNY   85  72  65 CALM      30.16F HX  91
Linden         PTSUNNY   87  67  51 CALM      30.19F HX  90
Sussex         CLOUDY    80  73  79 VRB3      30.17F
Abdover          N/A     81  70  69 SW8       30.19F
Trenton        PTSUNNY   85  73  67 VRB3      30.18F HX  91
Millville      CLOUDY    83  75  77 VRB5      30.21S HX  90
Atlantic City  NOT AVBL
Wrightstown    NOT AVBL
Toms River     CLOUDY    86  74  67 S7        30.21S HX  94
Belmar         PTSUNNY   86  69  56 S6        30.21S HX  90
$$

PAZ047>061-062-071-161600-
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Philadelphia   PTSUNNY   85  71  63 S10       30.19F HX  90
Allentown      CLOUDY    82  71  69 SW6       30.18F
Scranton       CLOUDY    79  70  74 S8        30.16F
$$

CTZ002-004>006-009-010-012-RIZ004-006-007-MAZ004-011-015-161600-
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
 IN CT

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Bradley INTL   CLOUDY    80  66  62 CALM      30.19F
Hartford       CLOUDY    83  70  64 SE6       30.18F
Danbury        MOSUNNY   81  74  79 SE12      30.20F
Wtrbury/Oxford CLOUDY    79  70  73 SE9       30.23S
Bridgeport     PTSUNNY   81  75  82 E9        30.18F
Meriden        CLOUDY    83  72  69 VRB5      30.19S
New Haven      PTSUNNY   81  75  82 SE9       30.19F
Chester        CLOUDY    81  73  78 VRB5      30.21F
Groton         CLOUDY    79  73  82 E8        30.20S
Wilimantic     CLOUDY    82  70  66 S7        30.21F

 IN RI

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Providence     PTSUNNY   80  68  66 SE3       30.21F
Block Island   CLOUDY    80  75  84 S13       30.22S
Westerly         N/A     80  73  79 MISG      30.22S
 IN MA

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Boston         CLOUDY    75  64  68 E5        30.22S
Worcester      PTSUNNY   74  62  66 SE9       30.25S
Westfield      MOSUNNY   77  66  68 CALM      30.20F
Provincetown   CLOUDY    78  71  79 E6        30.22F
Nantucket      MOSUNNY   76  71  85 S13       30.22F
$$

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-161600-
COASTAL MARINE OBSERVATIONS


STATION/POSITION TIME  SKY/WX   TEMP    WIND        PRES    VSBY  WAVE
                                AIR SEA DIR/SP/G                  HT/PER
                 (UTC)          (F)     (DEG/KT/KT) (MB)    (MI)  (FT/S)
NY HARB ENTRANCE 1350            80 80  200/  8/ 10 1022.3          1/ 9
20S FIRE ISLAND  1350            79 78  180/ 10/ 10 1022.3          2/ 9
GREAT SOUTH BAY  1430            80 84  220/ 10/ 12   N/A
23 SSW MONTAUK P 1350            78 77  170/ 12/ 14 1023.0          1/ 8
15 E BARNEGAT LI 1400               75                N/A           1/10
HUDSON CANYON    1350            79 80              1023.1          2/ 9
KINGS POINT      1400            79 76              1021.8
EXECUTION ROCKS  1400            79      50/  8/ 10   N/A
CENTRAL LI SOUND 1400            78 79  130/  6/ 10   N/A           1
EASTERN LI SOUND 1400            75 71   90/  6/ 10   N/A
ROBBINS REEF     1400            79     160/  9/ 11 1021.4
$$

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