Severe Thunderstorm Tornado Risk
Severe Thunderstorm Tornado Risk
The Storm Prediction Center has assessed a large area of slight risk of severe weather for today. The atmosphere is quickly destabilizing with sunshine providing ample daytime heating sending temperatures up into the 90s. Dew points are in the 70s. The upper air is showing pretty impressive lapse rate (temperature falling with height) so it seems like the table is set for severe weather for somebody but the question is whom.
Also the Storm Prediction Center is assessing a 5 percent risk of a tornado developing in an area that includes much of Northern New Jersey, Northeastern Pennsylvania and much of Southern New York State and the Western half of Connecticut.
Severe Thunderstorm Tornado Risk
You can see on the satellite loop above and the radar loop below that the warm front has moved by for the most part. Rains are well north. The cloud shield has that arcing look to it and tells us we are in the warm sector (between warm and cold front) where severe weather can develop.
With regards to where severe weather develops and what form it takes on the radar, i am shying away from the idea of a line of storms and leaning more toward scattered clusters. Of course these could be famous last words here. The bottom line is that the Storm Prediction Center has us at risk which I agree with. The unknown is when and were severe weather develops. The best we can say from here is watch the radar. Threat time will be mid afternoon through mid evening.
NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-161600- NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park PTSUNNY 84 71 65 SW6 30.20F LaGuardia APRT PTSUNNY 88 70 55 SW9 30.17S HX 93 Kennedy INTL PTSUNNY 85 75 72 S8 30.20S HX 93 Newark/Liberty PTSUNNY 89 68 49 W12 30.17F HX 93 Bronx Bot Gard N/A 88 70 55 W1 30.18F HX 92 Wall St Helipt PTSUNNY 86 73 66 SW5 30.19S HX 93 Teterboro MOSUNNY 86 70 58 S6 30.16F HX 90 $$ NYZ177-179-078>081-161600- LONG ISLAND NEW YORK CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Farmingdale MOSUNNY 87 72 60 SW13 30.19F HX 93 MacArthur/ISP PTSUNNY 86 74 67 S12 30.18F HX 94 Shirley MOSUNNY 84 74 71 S12 30.20F HX 91 Riverhead NOT AVBL Westhampton MOSUNNY 84 72 67 S9 30.22S Southampton N/A 81 77 89 S12 30.16F Bridgehampton N/A 81 75 83 S5 30.06S East Hampton CLOUDY 77 76 95 S7 30.20F Montauk N/A 81 75 82 VRB7 30.22S $$ NYZ052-065-067-161600- HUDSON VALLEY CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS White Plains PTSUNNY 83 73 72 S7 30.18F Newburgh PTSUNNY 79 73 83 CALM 30.20S Montgomery CLOUDY 79 72 79 CALM 30.18S Poughkeepsie CLOUDY 81 70 69 W6 30.16F Albany CLOUDY 76 66 71 S6 30.16F $$ NJZ001-105-106-008-010-013-015-019>022-104-161600- NEW JERSEY CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Newark/Liberty PTSUNNY 89 68 49 W12 30.17F HX 93 Teterboro MOSUNNY 86 70 58 S6 30.16F HX 90 Caldwell PTSUNNY 84 70 62 S7 30.18F Morristown PTSUNNY 84 72 65 SW8 30.18F Somerville MOSUNNY 85 72 65 CALM 30.16F HX 91 Linden PTSUNNY 87 67 51 CALM 30.19F HX 90 Sussex CLOUDY 80 73 79 VRB3 30.17F Abdover N/A 81 70 69 SW8 30.19F Trenton PTSUNNY 85 73 67 VRB3 30.18F HX 91 Millville CLOUDY 83 75 77 VRB5 30.21S HX 90 Atlantic City NOT AVBL Wrightstown NOT AVBL Toms River CLOUDY 86 74 67 S7 30.21S HX 94 Belmar PTSUNNY 86 69 56 S6 30.21S HX 90 $$ PAZ047>061-062-071-161600- EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Philadelphia PTSUNNY 85 71 63 S10 30.19F HX 90 Allentown CLOUDY 82 71 69 SW6 30.18F Scranton CLOUDY 79 70 74 S8 30.16F $$ CTZ002-004>006-009-010-012-RIZ004-006-007-MAZ004-011-015-161600- SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN CT CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Bradley INTL CLOUDY 80 66 62 CALM 30.19F Hartford CLOUDY 83 70 64 SE6 30.18F Danbury MOSUNNY 81 74 79 SE12 30.20F Wtrbury/Oxford CLOUDY 79 70 73 SE9 30.23S Bridgeport PTSUNNY 81 75 82 E9 30.18F Meriden CLOUDY 83 72 69 VRB5 30.19S New Haven PTSUNNY 81 75 82 SE9 30.19F Chester CLOUDY 81 73 78 VRB5 30.21F Groton CLOUDY 79 73 82 E8 30.20S Wilimantic CLOUDY 82 70 66 S7 30.21F IN RI CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Providence PTSUNNY 80 68 66 SE3 30.21F Block Island CLOUDY 80 75 84 S13 30.22S Westerly N/A 80 73 79 MISG 30.22S IN MA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Boston CLOUDY 75 64 68 E5 30.22S Worcester PTSUNNY 74 62 66 SE9 30.25S Westfield MOSUNNY 77 66 68 CALM 30.20F Provincetown CLOUDY 78 71 79 E6 30.22F Nantucket MOSUNNY 76 71 85 S13 30.22F $$ ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-161600- COASTAL MARINE OBSERVATIONS STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY HARB ENTRANCE 1350 80 80 200/ 8/ 10 1022.3 1/ 9 20S FIRE ISLAND 1350 79 78 180/ 10/ 10 1022.3 2/ 9 GREAT SOUTH BAY 1430 80 84 220/ 10/ 12 N/A 23 SSW MONTAUK P 1350 78 77 170/ 12/ 14 1023.0 1/ 8 15 E BARNEGAT LI 1400 75 N/A 1/10 HUDSON CANYON 1350 79 80 1023.1 2/ 9 KINGS POINT 1400 79 76 1021.8 EXECUTION ROCKS 1400 79 50/ 8/ 10 N/A CENTRAL LI SOUND 1400 78 79 130/ 6/ 10 N/A 1 EASTERN LI SOUND 1400 75 71 90/ 6/ 10 N/A ROBBINS REEF 1400 79 160/ 9/ 11 1021.4 $$
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