Severe Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday
Severe Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday
We will again see the risk of severe weather on Tuesday however be advised that the risk of severe weather and the actually likelihood of severe weather in your neighborhood are two different things. For example Saturday we saw quite a bit of severe weather on Saturday across Northern New Jersey, the Hudson Valley of New York and Connecticut while other areas also at risk saw very little. Weather models are not very useful in these situations. It is a matter of watching the radars and seeing where thunderstorms fire up. Often times short range models totally miss the areas that get development or they over develop the severe weather. There is also no consistency between models either. The problem is when fronts are weak and we rely on the convective nature of the atmosphere. So remember that the risk may be there but the odds favor someone else getting them.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TUESDAY
Above is the severe weather threat for Tuesday and below is the current severe weather threat for tonight which extends into Southeastern Pennsylvania and Southern New Jersey. There are two issues. The first is a warm front that is moving back northward tonight. When that passes through Tuesday morning there could be a few downpours or a thunderstorm with that though who knows who will see it.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERNIGHT
The second issue is in regard to an approaching weak cold front from the west Tuesday evening. The atmosphere should get destablized once the warm front passes and there could be some thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening though again who gets what remains to be seen.
Radars are buys to the southwest with severe weather confined to the Washington DC Baltimore area tonight and also extending southwest from there. How this holds together overnight determines what if any downpours we get with the warm front.
Meanwhile the drought over Suffolk County Long Island continues to deepen with rainfall deficits since March approaching 15 inches in some places. Here is the latest on that. Also we have a tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic which is getting better organized. Here is the latest on the possibility of tropical storm development.
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