Risks Rise For A Major Coastal Storm Late Sunday into Monday
We still have some Winter Weather Advisories this morning for areas of glaze inland. Rain has been moving through and there are some places inland struggling near the 32 degree mark. Otherwise the rain area will continue to the northeast and should start to end from west to east during this afternoon. Most temperatures today will be in the lower 40s across Northern New Jersey to Long Island with mid to upper 30s north and northeast. Mid to upper 40s are likely to the south and southwest in Southern New Jersey and points south and southwest. Most lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 30s as skies try to partially clear out.
SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
WEATHER RADAR
We move on now to the weekend and attention is going to turn to an intense short wave trough that will be diving southeastward from the Northern Plains while a big strong high builds across Southern and Eastern Canada and then necks southward into the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic states. Another short wave in the southern jet stream will spawn a low in the Southeastern US Saturday night and then the low turns northward.
The GFS ICON and NAM models weaken the southern low as a new low forms under the upper air storm closer to the coast and intensifies into a major Atlantic Ocean storm. From this we models generating a large area of heavy snow that extends westward into the Coastal Mid Atlantic and then northward into extreme Southeastern New York state including Long Island and Southernmost New England.
For those of you who are fans of the European model (which now stands alone), the southern low is the primary low that moves northeast and offshore with lower amounts. This model now stands alone on this idea compared to all the others. We will wait until the dayside guidance comes out. Above is the ICON loop which now matches up with the GFS. As far as accumulations go we see the potential for 8 inches or more for Long Island and New York City with lesser amounts as you go north and 12 inches or more for Central and Southern New Jersey, Southeastern Pennsylvania southward into Delaware & Maryland. We will be issuing an early call snow forecast later this afternoon once all the models have come in. Snow develops during the day Sunday from south to north with the heaviest snow Sunday night into the first part of Monday for areas across Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England and then ending west to east during Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s to around 30 or so with near 32 at the immediate coast. Strong winds will develop and with frozen bays will create issues to docks and shorelines during the storm. We will be LIVE tonight at 7:35pm on the Joe & Joe Weather Show Podcast on Youtube to talk all about this winter storm.
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MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.