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Rising Temperatures, Gfs Model Forecast, & More JOESTRADAMUS

Rising Temperatures, Gfs Model Forecast, & More JOESTRADAMUS

This morning I thought we would take a look at what is going on from the standpoint of temperature anomalies (how much above and below normal) are across the Arctic regions because it does illustrate what appears to be a temporary weakening of the vortex complex there for later next week. In the meantime we can also see the fire of above normal temperatures that extends from Texas to Northeastern Quebec! It is actually quite amazing to see such a wide area of 20 degrees or more above nomal. Rising temperatures will lead to a string of record highs over several days for us and the 60s will probably last at least into Monday before we see any kind of change.

Now with regards to what is happening from the standpoint of the larger scale picture, it appears that the models are going in slightly different directions. The gfs weather model overnight showed cold with a blocky look however the European seems to be less bullish on this idea. The main difference here is the strength of the vortex in Eastern Canada. That system has to be deep because if it is not, there won’t be much cold air produced. There lies one key for any reversion back to normal for a few days.

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Beyond this period will be the issue of whether the rising pressures in the northern latitudes is temporary or not. Right now it appears to me that this will be transient. There will be a window of opportunity for something to happen during the weekend before Christmas and into early Christmas week given the negative North American Oscillation signal that is being shown. The GFS from a few hours ago was not very bullish on a sustained cool down as the vortex comes right back at the end of the period with the ridge in the east getting ready to pop again.

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We will of course check the midday model runs and update you later today. In the meantime be sure to check the short term forecast posts and other items of interest.