ICE STORM THREAT INTERIOR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY..RECORD HIGHS AGAIN SUNDAY
The weekend starts out on a cooler note after another round of record highs on Christmas Day. We should be in the upper 40s to lower 50s today as we wait for warm air and another round of record high temperatures for Sunday. We will probably sit in clouds all day and as the warmer air arrives during Saturday night there could be some downpours. You would think this was springtime! Sunday its back into the 60s everywhere though I think we should be spared 70 degree readings but I suppose if there is enough sun it could happen somewhere. Another stronger cold front arrives Sunday night which sets the ball in motion for Monday night and Tuesday.
Monday will be dry but much colder. In fact so much colder that temperatures will probably be in the 30s everywhere to perhaps 40 in Southern New Jersey and Southeast Pennsylvania. Monday night it turns even colder as the 1am Tuesday morning temperature map shows.
The NAM model as we pointed out in our post last night shows a much colder look than the GFS because it takes the primary low much further west which allows cold air to wedge further south into almost all of Pennsylvania. This creates a forecast dilemma because it creates a possible icing situation much further south than the GFS model.
You can clearly see the big difference in the two models by Tuesday morning. The key question here is whether the nam is correct with an even further trend to the west with the primary low. My video from last night explains the reasoning behind this. The European weather forecast model was showing a further west track all along and it will be interesting to see whether it continues that trend today.
Either way it seems based on this that at the very least from Northwest New Jersey and Northern Pennsylvania northeastward through upstate New York north of rt 84 is in store for a significant ice storm from this system. Ski areas in interior New England will get some decent snows as the desert ski resorts get some much needed natural snow cover in time for the New Years weekend. It would also appear that the coast may have a brief period of sleet or even freezing rain before going to all rain. It will also be interesting to see how models handle temperatures in the bottom of the atmosphere. Shallow cold air masses can be extremely tricky and can often times under estimate how far south cold air sinks. We will of course have more on this later today on the potential for an ice storm for parts of the northeast.
Video analysis of the NAM and GFS head to head comparison from overnight.
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