Rainfall of 1 to 3 Inches Through Wednesday Night

Round 1 of the play we are about to participate in will get underway later tonight and for Wednesday. The first player is a cold front that will be moving through. With tropical moisture streaming up the east coast ahead of it and a pretty decent short wave trough aloft we should get a decent amount of rain from this. Rainfall maps from the GFS model and the Nam model give us a good shot of 1 to locally 3 inches of rain

namprecip gfsprecip1

Each model has its own variable on how this plays and the wave that moves northeastward along the front will produce the heaviest rains along and west of the track. The coast may have to wait until the wave goes by to participate in some of the heavy rains late Tuesday night and Wednesday but both the GFS and the Nam model have a similar idea with the GFS more robust with total numbers through Wednesday evening.



Now with regards to act 2 of this play this will all hang on the big high building across Northern New England and Eastern Canada, the deep trough that forms in the east, and the ultimate track of Tropical Storm Joaquin. The GFS has incredible total 6 day rainfall totals in excess of 6 inches in a very large area. Certainly these will be drought busting rain amounts if this all plays out. This is in response to the deep trough that creates a strong southerly flow along the east coast from the Bahamas straight north to upstate New York.


For more information on Tropical Storm Joaquin please see my latest discussion along with the latest satellite loops and the National Hurricane Center forecast track.

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