Rain Today Moves Out Tonight Dry Sunny Warm Friday Severe Weather Risks Saturday Monday

Rain Today Moves Out Tonight Dry Sunny Warm Friday

Severe Weather Risks Saturday Monday

Rain Today Moves Out Tonight Dry Sunny Warm Friday

Severe Weather Risks Saturday Monday

We have some rain in the forecast today as low pressure is moving east from the Ohio Valley and is forecast to pass just to the south and east of New Jersey and Long Island late today and into this evening. Models overnight have backed off somewhat from the robust rains they were forecasting yesterday. We will continue to follow the rule of looking at forecast amounts in a smooth way and acknowledge that some local areas could wind up with higher amounts if thunderstorms should develop and overproduce.

We will be watching the progress on the radar today in case we see some extra action. However the HRRR models and others seem to move this area along with not much in the way of development. However we do have some severe weather risk though it is marginal which means there is a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms especially in Southeastern New England to Eastern Long Island and from Delmarva south.

The main emphasis though should be rain from any heavier thunderstorms. The Weather Prediction Center has a marginal risk for flash flooding today with a small area of slight risk in Southeast New England. If the system performs in line with expectations it should not be a problem. Radar shows advancing rain moving across Pennsylvania and should over spread the area during the morning and early afternoon from west to east.

SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES

WEATHER RADAR

Temperatures today will top out before the rain arrives reaching the upper 70s to around or just over 80. However once the rain starts we will see temperatures fall to the upper 60s and lower 70s. A wind from the east will likely develop as low pressure moves off the New Jersey coast and tracks south of Long Island tonight. We will watch for heavier convection to form near the low center and that is why the Storm Prediction Center is pointing to possibility of isolated severe thunderstorms.

The GFS model loop shows that we are in a pattern with weather fronts moving through every other day. On the “other” day we will see sunshine and dry weather weather with lower dew points. Friday will be such a day as dry air from Eastern Canada is drawn southward behind today’s low. Lots of sunshine is forecast Friday with low humidity and warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. No rain is forecast Friday.

The pattern of every other day continues over the weekend as we have another front approaching Saturday. The Storm Prediction Center has already indicated a marginal risk for severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening as that front approaches. It will turn more humid Saturday with sunshine into the afternoon before thunderstorms pop up. Saturday storms are likely to be in clusters rather than widespread so not everyone sees them. Highs Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s.

Sunday looks like a partly sunny day and there could be another shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon though the best chances will be inland and storms will be scatterered. Highs Sunday will be in the 80s. Monday brings a stronger cold fornt and a strong upper air trough that will support more numerous thunderstorms. Monday also looks like we could see widespread severe weather risk as dew points shoot up ahead of a cold front.

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Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.