Rain Coming Over The Weekend Thanksgiving Week Weather Outlook
We have a cold front coming on Friday and low pressure from the southern part of the jet stream that will be headed for the coastal waters east of New Jersey Saturday night and Sunday. Before we have to deal with those systems we are set finally for some genuine improvement after 3 raw days of cloudy skies and occasional rounds of light rain or drizzle. Finally we should see more sunshine today as low pressure develops offshore. The issue today is that there are still going to be a lot of leftover clouds around and we have to wait for that dry northwest wind to kick in later in the day but once that happens we should see some sunshine break through the clouds this afternoon. It might take a little longer to happen over Long Island and Connecticut but it should happen there eventually as well. Lack of sunshine all day long will likely keep temperatures in the 40s to around 50 or so.
We still have clouds to get through this morning on the satellite loop as well as some very light precip showing up on local radars; mainly along the coast and mainly aloft. We are waiting for low pressure to move away to the northeast.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
Finally we should clear out tonight and most lows along the coast and warmer urban areas will be in the 30s but inland lows will likely drop to the upper 20s and lower 30s. Thursday looks good with sunshine for most of the day with highs reaching the upper 40s and lower 50s.
Friday brings a cold front thanks to low pressure moving into Eastern Canada. The front won’t have much to work with so we expect clouds and scattered showers with highs in the 50s. The air behind this front is not that cold. The southern end of the front stalls and a wave develops on the front and begins to move east northeastward. The split flow in the jet stream seems to want to keep the northern and southern streams apart which favors a more southern track for the low. However we still see a primary heading toward Pittsburgh and a secondary developing right along the New Jersey coast Sunday.
Clouds will increase Saturday with rain developing from southwest to northeast later Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. It looks as if the rain should last into at least part of Sunday with the low moving off the Delaware coast and heading northeast from there. It will be a cold rain with raw conditions with temperatures just into the 40s.
Next week is Thanksgiving and with that a temporary pattern shift with a strong ridge building in the Eastern US and a deep trough in the west. This will lead to decent weather conditions Monday and Tuesday though we will have to deal with a high to the northeast and an onshore flow that develops by Wednesday. Whether that means clouds or not remains to be seen. Monday and Tuesday at least look like two nice days of sunshine and highs in the 50s. With the trough out to the west a major storm could develop and impact travel weather on Wednesday Thanksgiving eve.
There is uncertainty about the extent of development here but either way we will have a cold front to deal with and a chance for showers Wednesday with highs in the 50s to near 60. Then drier air on gusty winds arrives for Thursday Thanksgiving day where we should see some sunshine. It should stay nice and dry into Friday. It is a long way to go until late next week so forecasts will likely adjust a bit along the way.
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