Polar Vortex Plunge Early Look At Later Next Week

Polar Vortex Plunge Early Look At Later Next Week

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Polar Vortex Plunge Early Look At Later Next Week

The weather for the next three days will be relatively quiet. Other than temperature fluctuations between cold shots we are going to be snow free. The exceptions in the Northeast will be the lake effect action that will be going on from time to time. For our area other than patchy clouds that are scattered around, skies should clear out. Temperatures will settle in the teens to near 20. Wind chills will be down in the single digits.

EASTERN SATELLITE

storm free

REGIONAL RADAR

storm free

Regional radar shows some action going on in Southwestern NY as well as parts of North Central NY. There is an impressive east west band of snow showers across Lake Ontario that continues to move eastward over the same general area north of Syracuse toward Pulaski & Watertown. Snow will wind down on Saturday but could fire up again with the next weak front that will move through Sunday.

Polar Vortex Plunge Early Look At Later Next Week

Taking an early look here at the polar plunge later next week. Lows in the Plains and Midwest will be in the double digits below zero and the highs in many areas will also be in the double digits below zero. Over our area here are the early numbers for Thursday morning and there is a chance they could go lower depending on the orientation of the polar vortex and how it moves from the Great Lakes to the Northeast late next week. Below zero temperatures won’t be that far away from the big cities.

Polar Vortex Plunge Early Look At Later Next Week

When the arctic air begins to arrive Tuesday night we will see some rain showers ahead of it on Tuesday. The front could come through relatively quietly with that rain changing over to snow on the back side for a few hours giving cheap thrills to some and perhaps more in Western Pennsylvania to upstate NY & Central and Northern New England. The GFS model will argue for such an arrival.

Polar Vortex Plunge Early Look At Later Next Week

The GFS drops the polar vortex in like a bowling ball into the Great Lakes. It has a broad oval shape to it which means that any shortwave troughs rotating around it lack any definition. Cold front comes through with not much in the way of any issues. However as always the European model sees this differently.

Polar Vortex Plunge Early Look At Later Next Week

The European shows the polar vortex with elongated northwest southeast emphasizing a sword like well defined trough rotating around it and lifting up along the East Coast. As the arctic front approaches on the European, the arctic front slows down and a wave develops on the front along the Virginia coast, moves north northeast and intensifies. This would mean a rather robust snowfall from the Central Appalachians northeastward to just inland of the coast and a literal translation would be just barely inland. This look has been suggested from time to time over the last several days by various models but the European holds on to this very amplified look. The European’s track record this winter has been shabby and we view this with skepticism at this stage. A storm well off the Southeast coast this weekend could be a player in this scenario. That storm moves out to the northeast Sunday night and Monday leaving a weakness in the Middle Atlantic States. As the low in the Great Lakes weakens a new low develops to the southeast and then heads northeast just offshore at least in the Europeans world.

Polar Vortex Plunge Early Look At Later Next Week

The orientation of the upper low and its movement across the northeast will impact just how low bitter cold air will last. Thursday and Friday morning will be the two very cold nights with a rebound to follow. That rebound could be slowed if the European models slower and further south exit verifies. Interesting times ahead.

polMANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS

Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.

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