Polar Vortex Attack Part 2



Polar Vortex Attack Part 2


Now that the Blizzard of 2016 is long gone we need to prepare for Polar Vortex Attack Part 2! Think back to the end of December 2015, JOESTRADAMUS wrote a piece concern the attack of the polar vortex. We indicated that this was the beginning of the pattern breakdown of the record warm weather pattern of November and December 2015. That pattern led to the warmest November and December on record and contributed to the warmest fall on record. Of course the pattern did change and break down and has now run its short term course. It culminated in the Blizzard of 2016. We also indicated a pattern change was coming for the end of January and the beginning of February and indeed we are going to see a warmup into the middle of next week. This will be short lived however as a major storm will probably head to the Great Lakes for the middle of next week. This means snow melt, heavy rains ahead of that storm’s cold front, and we might even see temperatures briefly visit the 60s for a few hours when that happens next Wednesday.

Polar Vortex Attack Upper Air Pattern

arctic Polar Vortex Attack

But fear not winter weather lovers because this remarkable winter of extremes is about to see another polar vortex attack up in the arctic regions at the highest levels of the atmosphere! This seems to suggest another cold and volatile period of weather could get under way here after next week. The upper air pattern is showing another warming of the upper atmosphere is underway much like we saw in late December which sent temperatures in the Arctic regions to 30 degrees or more above normal. It is happening once again.

Polar Vortex Attack Departures From Normal

arctic Polar Vortex Attack


This process eventually leads to cold air being displaced southward into the United States and we see this happening again. The first round of that cold air will be coming back later next week behind the Great Lakes storm that models are forecasting. The map below shows departures from normal temperatures going into Saturday February 6th.

Polar Vortex Attack Departures From Normal February 6, 2016

arctic Polar Vortex Attack

It seems to me that the atmosphere is gearing up to head into an exhaustion phase similar to point we were at nearing the end of December when we set a string of 6 consecutive days of record highs. What I mean by this is, with the el nino past its peak and slowly beginning to weaken, the atmosphere has been spending much of the last 5 weeks purging itself of all the excess heat energy. We seen this in some many ways in the last few weeks including a rare January hurricane in the Atlantic (first since 1951) to the Blizzard of 2016 to a host of other weather events over the 2 months. I think the purging process will continue given the signals being given by the longer range and the behavior of the atmosphere itself.

Polar Vortex Attack Upper Air Pattern Long Range

arctic Polar Vortex Attack

This is an example of the kind of jet stream pattern we might see out of all of this. I’m not saying that it is going to be exactly like this, nor will be be cold all the time. But I think that we will see lots of volatility and volatilty will lead to storminess. Nothing is written in stone however I would not be surprised if we wind up seeing another serious snow threat between now and the end of March. The atmosphere is in the process of correcting itself to some sense of normalcy. That process I believe may wind up being somewhat painful.









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Polar Vortex Attack

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Polar Vortex Attack