ophelia

Ophelia Sets Sights On Western Europe

Ophelia Sets Sights On Western Europe

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Ophelia Sets Sights On Western Europe

It isn’t very often that we pay attention to what is going on across the pond but it is rather interesting that we have soon to be Hurricane Ophelia in the Eastern Atlantic and you can see it about 1000 miles east of the Canary Islands. It is very small when you look at it from the perspective of this satellite view. But it is much closer to Western Europe than it is the United States. Tropical Storms and hurricanes occasionally do make it up to Western Europe particularly the British Isles. Most of the time they become strong or even fierce post tropical systems and there is a rather lengthy list of storms that have impacted Britian Ireland and nearby. In 2005 Hurricane Vince became the first storm in modern history that is known to have made landfall in Spain. Now we have Ophelia and an upper air pattern that will bring it very close to the coasts of Spain and France and then possibly into the British Isles early next week.

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As of this morning on the tight satellite loop you can see Ophelia getting better orgnaized and actually drifting southward. Ophelia looks like it is strengthening and is likely to become a hurricane later today or tonight.

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The National Hurricane Center’s forecast is for Ophelia to eventually begin moving to the northeast and by day 5 it will be offshore the coast of Spain.

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From here the upper air pattern would suggest a turn toward the north over time as Ophelia begins to interact with a strong non tropical low in the North Atlantic and a very strong upper high that is over Western Europe.

EUROPEAN UPPER AIR FORECAST FOR WESTERN EUROPE SUNDAY NIGHT


ophelia

The forecast issue will be whether Ophelia maintains a separate identity as it moves northward or does it get absorbed by all the energy running aroung in the North Atlantic. Models have shifted westward overnight to suggest a near miss for Western Europe and the British Isles. Of course the margin of error is large since we are looking out in the day 6 and 7 time frame.

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

 

 

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