Onshore Flow Strengthens Ahead of Storm System
Rain Wind Wednesday Night Thursday
A storm system is to the southeast offshore North Carolina and it is heading northeastward out to sea. This secures us one more dry day before weather conditions begin to deteriorate. It was another chilly start this morning with lows in the 30s and lower 40s. We will see a good deal of sunshine today though there might be some ocean low clouds that will start to arrive from the northeast (thank you onshore flow). Most highs today will be in the low to middle 50s. Radars are nice and quiet at least for today and much of tonight.
SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES
WEATHER RADAR
Wednesday we will start to see deterioration thanks to the strengthening onshore low. East winds will pick up. We will have lots of clouds around and there will likely be some areas of light rain or drizzle that will develop. The onshore flow will keep things damp and raw with high temperatures will be mostly in the 50s.
A rather vigorous upper air trough is diving southeastward into the Plains and eventually into the Tennessee Valley. Strong low pressure will move from Kansas to Northern Mississippi and then take a track northeast through the lower Ohio Valley and then into the Appalachians. A secondary low will likely develop on a strong occluded front that will swing out of the low and extend through the Southern Appalachians to Florida and then swing northward up the East Coast Thursday.
The low is also going to pick up Major Hurricane Melissa and force it northeastward across Jamaica today, and Southeast Cuba overnight into Wednesday morning, emerging in the Southeast Bahamas and then northeast toward Bermuda Thursday. This is happening while the front is whipping northward up the East Coast, essentially carrying Melissa to some extent on its northeastward track and away from the US East Coast.
Areas of moderate to heavy rain will develop over the Mid Atlantic states Wednesday night and spread up the coast Wednesday night and Thursday. The heaviest rain likely falls during the day across Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England and there might be a thunderstorm or two in the mix. Gusty winds to 30 to 40 mph are possible from the southeast especially along the coast as the gradient tightens. We expect the rain to end from southwest to northeast late in the day Thursday into Thursday evening.
Rainfall could be significant helping to ease dry conditions. An inch and three quarters to two inches or possibly a bit more is forecast area wide. Temperatures Thursday will be in the upper 50s to perhaps breaking above 60 degrees in some places. Weather conditions are set to improve Friday with gusty northwest winds, leftover clouds and some breaks of sunshine. Most highs Friday will be in the 50s. Right now the weekend is looking nice, dry, and chilly.
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