Nor’easter Update Flash Flood Watch Expanded Weather Conditions Deteriorate Overnight

Nor’easter Update Flash Flood Watch Expanded

Weather Conditions Deteriorate Overnight

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Nor’easter Update Flash Flood Watch Expanded

Weather Conditions Deteriorate Overnight

National Weather Services offices have expanded the Flash Flood Watch area further west in to Eastern and Southeastern Pennsylvania as well as from the Catskills westward. The Flash Flood Watches continue for Southeastern NY and Long Island as well as Southern and Central New England. All of New Jersey is in the Flash Flood Watch except for the 3 southwesternmost counties.

SATELLITE

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As advertised today was a quiet warm humid day as temperatures topped in the mid to upper 70s inland while south facing shorelines from NYC east had to deal with a south wind so temperatures there topped in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Dew points have climbed to the low and mid 60s setting the table for what is to happen later tonight into Tuesday.

WEATHER RADAR

Radars locally are quiet for now but keep an eye on the regional radar as the energy to the west moves east. Look for showers and thunderstorms now developing in Western Pennsylvania to head east and the southern part of the line will extend into Maryland and Virginia later tonight. That area will take a sharp turn northeast and northward and we will see a band of heavy rain and thunderstorms moving in during the early morning hours from south to north.

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At the same time low pressure off the North Carolina coast strengthens and moves northeast to a position well offshore. However the western energy will force the storm to do a counterclockwise loop later Tuesday into Tuesday night. The first NAM loop is from 8pm this evening until 2pm Tuesday.

The arm of rain that moves northward produces a 4 to 6 hour period of heavy rain. Then as the arm moves northward into the Hudson Valley we may catch a bit of a break and then the second round of rain comes in from the east as the storm makes that counterclockwise loop. The NAM model below is a 12 hour loop from 2pm Tuesday until 2am Wednesday.

As far as wind is concerned, there won’t be much until beginning late Tuesday and the strongest winds will be for those closer to the low center. This means Eastern Long Island to Southeastern New England will see the strongest winds. While winds could be gusty along the South Shore of Long Island and coastal New Jersey, the strongest winds will be to the east. Also note that there could be some strong winds gusts with the first arm of rain as thunderstorms roll by but they will be more random in nature.

Total rainfall forecasts are in the 2-4/3-5 inch range which is less than what we saw with the remnants of Hurricane Ida but certainly high enough to justify the flash flood watches. The normal areas that flood in a heavy rain will flood out and some of the not so normal areas will see some flash flooding. Take appropriate cautionary actions and hope the numbers are on the low end. Weather conditions will improve Wednesday. At least the rain will be gone but clouds are likely to be stubborn. Then Thursday looks ok before storm number 2 heads in for Friday. This could be another round of rain and wind though the set up is a bit different. We will get into this more later.

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Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.