Nice Weather Wednesday Before Rain Thunderstorms Thursday Dry Nice Friday

Nice Weather Wednesday Before Rain Thunderstorms Thursday Dry Nice Friday

Nice Weather Wednesday Before Rain Thunderstorms Thursday Dry Nice Friday

We have a nice weather day set for this Wednesday as some drier air has come in behind the Monday Tuesday weather system. That system is now pulling away to the east. Today we will see sunshine and a west wind and that will take highs to the mid and upper 80s. The west wind means there won’t be much of a sea breeze if at all so shore temperatures also will reach the middle to upper 80s. Dew points will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s today which is ok but not perfect. It does beat a day of highs in the upper 80s and dew points in the 70s. Radars are quiet today with no issues.

SATELLITE WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES

WEATHER RADAR

There are no issues tonight as we start out clear but then clouds will increase late tonight into Thursday morning. Most lows will be in the 60s except some cooler 50s inland. Low pressure coming out of the Central Plains will be heading east tonight and Thursday. The actual low center takes a track a bit to the south than what we have have used to seeing this summer.

We will see an area of rain move through from west to east during the day Thursday as the HRRR model loop shows us. The loop runs from 8am to 8pm Thursday. There might be some heavier downpours in the mix and also a thunderstorm or two. The Storm Prediction Center is indicating the chance for an isolated severe thunderstorm along the coast of Long Island and Southeastern New England and general thunderstorm risk elsewhere. This system doesn’t appear to be the kind that produces much in the way of severe thunderstorms.

Rainfall forecasts from the weather service seem to me to be just a bit on the low side and I would lean to the idea that amounts forecast here are too low. Given there is some convection in the mix, some places could see double the amounts forecast while others probably forecast in line with estimates.

Temperatures are a bit tricky for Thursday. There may be enought time before the rain moves in for temperatures to reach the upper 70s to some lower 80s but once the rain starts, temperatures will probably fall to the lower 70s or even some upper 60s in places. The system is long gone by Friday which will leave us with a nice sunny day to finish the week with lower dew points and highs in the 80s.

Over the weekend we will see another cold front approach for Saturday meaning we will be very warm and humid ahead of it with much of the day dry and the chance for late day showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 80s. Sunday then probably is a better day with sunshine, slightly lower dew points and highs again in the 80s.

The loop of the GFS model takes us from Thursday through Monday so you can see the weather systems moving through the east. Monday we will see another cold front but this one does come with a more vigorous upper air system so we could be setting up for thunderstorms and severe weather that is more widespread and covers more geography. We will be watching to see how this plays out over the coming days as it does look like the system we had Monday that caused severe weather up and down the East.

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Please note that with regards to any severe weather,  tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.