satLatest satellite pictures of disturbance well south of the Cape Verde Islands show a circulation is developing and it is likely that this system will become a tropical depression in the next 24 hours and beyond that conditions appear favorable (for now) for gradual strengthening over the next few days. We may have the season’s 9th tropical storm in a few days.

gfs36 gfs96

Looking at the shearing pattern over the next few days, it appears per the gfs that the shearing pattern will be relaxing over the tropical Atlantic. The track to the west northwest could put this particular system right in the area of light shear. Now bear in mind that models weaken shear often do so way to fast but they do get it right on occasion. Right now it would appear that his will wind up being an ocean storm based on the upper pattern in the Atlantic.

gfs60There is a weakness in the upper ridge across the Atlantic which is where this system should gravitate to over the next 3 days. Unless the ridge is stronger than forecast this would seem the most likely path. Further supporting this idea is that the ridge is actually forecast by the model to weaken considerably beyond 72 hours so at this point this looks to be the most likely track. Both the European and the GFS pick up on this. The GFS makes it a hurricane and also makes it a game changer in the north Atlantic which I discuss at length today in my new JOESTRADAMUS piece. The European it should be noted loses this system entirely and therefore has more of the same with regard to the pattern going forward! As usual we have differing viewpoints on models but I think a plausible argument can be made that the European may have the better idea here!

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