NAM Model Goes European
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The NAM model may not be the most perfect model in the world but it is very useful for giving out clues about what is happening. From what I see the NAM Model Goes European on tonight’s run. It seems to be coming around to the Euro model idea of a slower moving intensifying storm that passes just offshore and brings heavy wet snows to much of the northeast from Coastal New Jersey to much of New England.
NAM Model Goes European SURFACE MAP SUNDAY MORNING 3/20/2016
The NAM model seems to be rushing out a lead low to just east of North Carolina by Sunday morning and actually has snow falling here by then However I would caution that much of what you see here at this point is probably a little overdone. That lead low on this model does not become the main center. It seems that this lead center brings some precipitation here during Sunday daytime and as we have been saying, anything that falls in the daytime is not going to accumulate much. In fact the NAM model snowfall forecast maps pretty much show this. It is what happens late Sunday and Sunday night that becomes the focal point. Here the NAM begins to match up with the Euro model very well.
NAM Model Goes European SURFACE MAP SUNDAY EVENING 3/20/2016
Here is the NAM model surface map for Sunday evening. The Low center is off the Delaware coast and beginning to intensify. Heavy snow in the dark blue is indicated along the coast with steady snows pushing back inland. The low center is a little north of the day run Euro model but close enough. From here the low creeps north northeastward.
NAM Model Goes European SURFACE MAP 2 AM MONDAY MORNING 3/21/2016
At this point at 1AM Sunday the axis of heavy nsow shifts to Coastal New Jersey New York City and Long Island and it continues to about daybreak. The NAM model position and depth now match up very well with the Euro model from Thursday afternoon.
NAM Model Goes European 8AM MONDAY 3/21/2016
Now we are at Monday morning on the NAM model and it is virtually identical to the Thursday afternoon Euro model run. It shows a deep low just south of Nantucket. Snow about to end in New York City but still going over Long Island. From the NAM model precipitation and snowfall forecast maps below you can see the outcome.
NAM Model Goes European SNOW FORECAST MAP
NAM Model Goes European TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Now there is probably another 3 hours of precipiation to add to this but based on this model run it seems clear that the risk of a 6 to 12 inch snowfall for much of the area is growing more likely. I will wait to see what the Euro model does overnight and put out my snowfall forecast map in the morning. Temperature profiles of the bottom of the atmosphere but the Nam model strength and intensity of precipitation should chill the bottom of the atmosphere into the upper 20s Sunday night in many areas. But again I will wait until Friday morning to make my first guess.
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