nam model

Nam Model Brings Julia Remnants Northward

Nam Model Brings Julia Remnants Northward

JOESTRADAMUS AT THE HICKSVILLE LIBRARY ON WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 5TH 7:15PM

Nam Model Brings Julia Remnants Northward

We can only hope that this is true! The new NAM model tonight wants to bring the remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Julia northwestward into the Carolinas and then northward up the coast. Unfortunately after Tuesday morning the remnant low and the rain pretty much disappear before moving far enough north into drought stricken areas.

NAM MODEL TUESDAY MORNING

nam model

NAM MODEL TUESDAY EVENING

nam model
It is sad because an intact remnant circulation could at least extend a good soaking rain here into Tuesday in areas that need it badly. But after Tuesday morning everything just falls apart which makes sense as a ridge builds aloft. But sometimes these things hang on longer than advertised so we will watch what other models do with this.

..JULIA'S DEMISE IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 76.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Julia
was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 76.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and
only a small northward drift is expected during the next day or
so.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Julia is expected to become a remnant low on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Strong northerly shear continues unabated and shows no signs of relaxing. Thunderstorms flare up near the center only to see them blown apart by the shear.

nam model tropical depression julia

More than likely this will be a remnant low before too long and sadly won’t bring more rain to our area.

tropical storm karl nam model

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Karl is fighting its own issues with shear tonight. The new advisory lowers top winds to 40 mph. Tropical Storm Karl will move into an area more favorable for development by Monday but if the strong wind shear continues, what exactly will there be left?

...KARL STRUGGLING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 41.3W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karl was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 41.3 West. Karl is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A westward to
west-northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Karl is forecast to begin to strengthen on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

We will of course take a look at this again in the morning along with all the overnight models. At least the NAM model shows more rainfall on this run then in its prior 2 runs thpugh the heaviest rain is to our south.

 

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