The NAM Model really goes whole hog with regards to rainfall into Friday morning however I want to focus on the first round of rain that is coming for Tuesday night into Wednesday.
The rainfalls on the NAM model are substantial and fall between 2am and 2pm Wednesday so Wednesday morning’s commute will be very difficult if this NAM radar presentation is correct. It brings the heaviest rain over New Jersey to New York City and Long Island and is a bit of a southward shift from prior runs. In one sense I really hope this holds because this will be 2 to 3 inches or more of rain in a very short period of time. All the ingredients are there for a good soaking.
Now comes the hard part as the nam seems to have an almost continuous flow of rain into Thursday night with not much of a break though I honestly believe there will be at least some drying from the north as a huge high builds southward. Also get set for a big change in temperatures so that by Thursday there could be many areas where temperatures do not get out of the 50s or perhaps low 60s at best! Also make note of the swirl off the Bahamas which could be a Tropical Storm by the time we get to Wednesday morning.
The upper air pattern along the east coast is shaping up to be rather ominous. The deep upper air feature in the Tennessee Valley sets up a straight southerly flow aloft along the east coast so anything that is out in the ocean has no place to go but straight up the coast. Couple that with a big blocking high holding firm and you have the set up for noreaster conditions developing later Friday and into the weekend. All of this hinges on what happens to the depression. Whether it remains tropical or not, the fact that we will have very high pressures across Northern New England and low pressures south off the east coast means gales and coastal flooding are possible along with more heavy rain. We will deal with any tropical threat once we know the destiny of Tropical Depression 11.
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