NAM Model Analysis

NAM Model Analysis

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The NAM model is not the most reliable model. Once upon a time it was very good but these days it has occasional moments. Begin that it is the first model out every night, let’s take a look at what it shows for the week ahead.

NAM Model Analysis NAM MODEL 10AM MONDAY

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The first thing will be a cold front moving through on Monday. The front is weak and so is the line of showers that moves through the area tomorrow morning between 7am and noon. Rainfall amounts are light for the most part. The second is the cold front that moves through Wednesday. That one has a little more punch to it. We should see some rain moving in Tuesday night and continuing into the first part of Wednesday.

NAM Model Analysis NAM MODEL 7AM WEDNESDAY

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Low pressure with this is going to pass into Western New York. The model does seem to develop a line of heavy showers and thunderstorms Wednesday morning but I don’t think we have the same set up regarding severe weather like we did last week. The storm is not nearly as intense and we don’t seem to have the warm tropical inflow ahead of this system like we did the last one. Once that front goes by attention then shifts to the end of the week.

NAM Model Analysis NAM MODEL THURSDAY MORNING

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At first glance the surface profile looks rather interesting. Cold air is advecting southward in the east behind the cold front and we have a big high building to the north. Low pressure is in Southern Missouri and there is snow breaking out across the Ohio Valley. The issue however is the support aloft which is less impressive.

NAM Model Analysis UPPER AIR JET STREAM THURSDAY MORNING

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The northern part of the jet stream centers around a vortex that is just southeast of James Bay. That upper vortex is already pretty far to the east and it is still moving east. This is going put pressure on the southern stream system in not allowing enough room. The NAM model is pretty far north with that southern stream feature. It is further north than the GFS model and not as deep as the Canadian weather model. Tonight’s run illustrates the issue regarding timing. When you have different streams of energy it is important that they time out a certain why. The NAM model doesn’t go out past 84 hrs so we can just do our best at guessing. My thinking is that the NAM is over amplified here with the southern stream energy and that the system will translate eastward. This could eventually bring a snow threat to the southern areas of the Middle Atlantic States for Friday and Friday night. However the global models are better at this sort of thing so we will wait to see what the GFS model, Canadian weather model, and Euro model do with all this later on tonight.

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