Moving No Closer to A Solution
If you thought that by this time we would be moving closer to a model solution, think again! Examining the models from today we can see that nothing has changed and that we are moving no closer. 3 models, three different ideas! And there are probably a host of other solutions that are possible. Nothing has been resolved. Nothing won’t be resolved for awhile yet. So the mystery continues. My video shows all three models today side by side and why the models are still not moving any closer to a solution.
Last night’s GFS video model analysis had different ideas and you can read my JOESTRADAMUS post from earlier regarding the differences. Here is the European view of the weather system for next week. The European takes a major storm from the Tennessee Valley to upstate New York. This is night and day from the overnight run which took a storm from the Carolinas northeast to just southeast of Nantucket. This also is much different from the GFS which went from a major east coast storm to a weak coastal low grazing the shoreline before moving out to sea, to the Canadian which did something similar. Models are having trouble with two separate jet streams with tons of energy all over the place, a crashing North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a large scale pattern change underway. DO NOT EXPECT MODELS MOVING TO ANY CONSENSUS ANYTIME SOON!!!
The Ensemble continue to average out to a colder look with a southern offshore track on both the GEPS and the GEFS! The European Ensembles also have a similar idea.
Again to review, model volatility is extremely high due to a crashing North Atlantic Oscillation, tons of energy running around in a split flow of the polar and the subtropical jet and we have a large scale pattern change going on across the Arctic. Is it any wonder that the models are a mess?
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