Mothers Day & Weekend Looking Like A Washout
Mothers Day & Weekend Looking Like A Washout
There has been this sort of unwritten rule the the weather on Mothers Day must be beautiful. I don’t quite know where it comes from but we can say based on what we are seeing that this definitely WILL NOT be the case this Mothers Day. The blocking pattern that has been impacting the weather across the Eastern United States is about to break down as the pattern shifts. It is usually at these moments that the atmosphere gets a bit of a headache that it has to relieve. It seems to want to do it in the form of a coastal low and a mid May noreaster to come right over the weekend.
MOTHERS DAY & WEEKEND RAINFALL FORECAST
All the major weather models would point to a 2 to 4 inch rainfall across much of the interior Middle Atlantic states up to Southern New England. The late afternoon model run has shifted slightly northwestward but the general idea is that we are in the bowling alley here for a heavy rain. It is often that when blocks break down it creates tension in the atmosphere which needs to be relieved somehow. The disappearing block opens the door for low pressure in the Southwest US to come eastward. The upper trough from the north swings down and phases with the southern system. The result is a coastal low off the Mid Atlantic Coast and tracking northward.
MOTHERS DAY & WEEKEND GFS MODEL FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY
Track and strength will be the next question. The low tracking further east than the one last week would shift the axis of heavy rain to the coast but this looks like a widespread rain event with a gusty northeast wind for Saturday into Sunday.
MOTHERS DAY & WEEKEND GFS MODEL CLICK TO ANIMATE
It would seem rain would develop early Saturday morning and it will continue into Sunday afternoon in some areas. That and the ocean wind will mean temperatures struggling in the 50s again. All the weather models today have the general idea and we see no reason to disagree with this. Unless the block holds on longer than forecast and suppresses all this to the south, it seems the entire weekend coming up will be a washout.
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